中国沿海风能年际变化的区域性特征成因及其预测  

Regional characteristics,causes,and predictions of interannual variations in wind energy along the coast of China

作　　者：沈龙 罗京佳 金大超[1,2] SHEN Long;LUO Jing-jia;JIN Dachao(Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气候与应用前沿研究院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室、气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2024年第2期235-248,共14页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

摘　　要：基于ERA5的逐小时100m风场数据,利用时间序列K-means聚类方法,将中国沿海冬季风能年际变化划分为四个区域,分别为北中国海(NorthChina Sea,NCS)、东海(East China Sea,ECS)、南海北部(Northern South China Sea,NSCS)及南海南部(SouthernSouthChinaSea,SSCS)。四个区域风能的年际变化受不同气候模态的影响,其中NCS风能的年际变化与北极涛动(ArcticOscillation,AO)有关;ECS风能的年际变化与中部型ENSO及西伯利亚高压有关;SSCS和NSCS的年际变化则和东部型ENSO及大陆高压的南北位置存在联系。鉴于影响各区域风能年际变化的气候模态具有较高的可预测性,进一步评估了多个气候模式对中国沿海风能年际变化的预测技巧。结果表明,气候模式对南中国海的风能年际变化预测技巧更高,这与气候模式对ENSO的高预测技巧有关。气候模式对北方海域风能年际变化的预测技巧较差,这和气候模式不能较好地预测AO和西伯利亚高压有关。With population growth and socio-economic development,the use of fossil fuels not only impacts the environmental but also highlights its finite nature.Consequently,the quest for environmentally friendly and sustainable alternative energy solutions has become urgent.Offshore wind,as an emerging energy source,offers a continuous power supply for China.However,the instability of wind energy’s interannual variations can lead to insufficient energy supply for the wind power industry,emphasizing the importance of examining and predicting these variations.In this study,we employed the Time Series K-means clustering method to categorize winter interannual variations of wind energy along the Chinese coast into four regions:the North China Sea(NCS),East China Sea(ECS),Northern South China Sea(NSCS),and Southern South China Sea(SSCS).Subsequently,regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between interannual variations in regional wind energy and large-scale circulation anomalies.We found that interannual variations in NCS are related to the Arctic Oscillation(AO)-related cyclones(Anticyclones)in Northeast China,while those in ECS are associated with the central-type El Ni o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Siberian High.Wind power in both SSCS and NSCS is influenced by the eastern-type ENSO-related Philippines cyclones(Anticyclones),with the north-south position of the continental high-pressure system also affecting their interannual variations;when the continental high-pressure system shifts northward(southward),NSCS(SSCS)is mainly affected.Considering the relatively high predictability of climate modes,we evaluated the predictive skill of wind energy along the Chinese coast using five climate models.Regarding climatology predictions,CMCC and JMA overestimate wind energy in the southern sea,contrasting with underestimations from NUIST and DWD.SEAS5 aligns closely with ERA5.Conversely,in the northern sea,all models except SEAS5 tend to overestimate wind energy.In terms of root mean square error(RMSE)in pre

关 键 词：中国沿海风能 年际变化 北极涛动 ENSO 西伯利亚高压 气候预测系统评估 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学] TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]