基于区块链技术理念的片区开发项目DCF模型风险评价  

DCF Model Risk Assessment of District Development Projects Based on Blockchain Technology Concept

作　　者：赵文飞 ZHAO Wenfei(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;China Chemical City Investment Co.,LTD.,Xi’an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学,北京100710 [2]中国化学城市投资有限公司,陕西西安710000

出　　处：《安庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期52-59,共8页Journal of Anqing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：片区开发项目包含大量的基础设施与公共服务内容,关于其风险评价的研究已经较为丰富,但是在“区块链+供应链”的“双链”背景下,立足于片区开发项目全生命周期的风险评价研究却鲜有尝试。本文基于区块链技术及其基本理念,结合项目全生命周期的供应链架构,以我国北方某地级市片区开发项目为例,通过建立动态现金流折现模型(DCF)下的财务数据模型,对片区开发项目金融风险事件的整体性、关联性、关键性、时效性重要节点提出针对性的监测评价。以此为契机,借助DCF模型的“双链”风险评价模型,可以深度剖析片区开发类项目全局性风险的预警处置,对其他同类型项目风险的管理处置具有一定参考意义。The district development projects contain a large number of infrastructure and public services,and there are abundant studies on its risk evaluation.However,in the“double-chain”background of“blockchain+supply chain”,there are few attempts to study the risk evaluation based on the full life cycle of the district development projects.Based on the blockchain technology and its basic concepts,combining with the supply chain architecture of the full life cycle of the project,taking the district development projects a prefecture-level city in northern China as an example,this paper proposes targeted monitoring and evaluation towards the integrality,correlation,criticality and timeliness of the important nodes,which appear in the financial risk events of the district development projects by establishing the financial data model under the dynamic Discounted CashFlow(DCF)model.Taking this as an opportunity,along with the help of the“double-chain”risk evaluation model of the DCF model,the early warning and disposal of the global risks of the district development projects can be deeply analyzed,which has certain reference significance for the management and disposal of other similar projects’risk.

关 键 词：区块链技术 片区开发项目 供应链 风险评价 DCF模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]