刘易斯转折点、缴费负担转嫁与高龄农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险趋势——理论推断与实际证据  

The Lewis Turning Point,the Transfer of Contribution Burden,and the Trend of Elderly Migrant Workers Participating in Basic Old-age Insurance of Urban Employees:Theoretical Inference and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：贾洪波[1] JIA Hong-bo(Beihang University)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期46-57,140,共13页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“以所得为缴费基数的城镇职工基本养老保险缴费率优化模型与实证测算”(72074016);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响路径与政策选择研究”(20&ZD077)。

摘　　要：高龄农民工特指户籍仍在农村、在本地从事非农产业或外出从业6个月及以上的50岁及以上劳动者。中国刘易斯转折点大概出现在2010—2014年。与人口结构尤其是年龄结构相对应的刘易斯转折点前后,高龄农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险个人缴费负担和用人单位缴费负担转嫁内在地决定着高龄农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险的比例及其变化趋势。刘易斯转折点之前高龄农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险的比例偏低,刘易斯转折点之后高龄农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险的比例会增加,实证检验证实了这一理论推断。为了提高高龄农民工未来的养老保障程度,提出以帕累托改进原则推进高龄农民工养老保障制度改革,督促高龄农民工与用人单位签订劳动合同,做好高龄农民工基本养老保险关系转移接续,实施多样化的高龄农民工养老保障方式。Elderly migrant workers refer to individuals aged 50 and above who still have rural household registration,are engaged in non-agricultural industries locally,or have been working for at least 6 months non-locally.The emergence of China’s Lewis turning point is estimated to have occurred between 2010 and 2014.In line with the population structure,particularly the age structure before and after the Lewis turning point,the transfer of contribution burden of individual and employer for elderly migrant workers participating in Basic Old-age Insurance of Urban Employees(BOIUE)internally determined the proportion of elderly migrant workers enrolled in the BOIUE and its evolving trend.Prior to the Lewis turning point,there was a low participation rate among elderly migrant workers in BOIUE;however,following this turning point,their participation rate is expected to increase.Empirical testing confirms this theoretical inference.In order to improve the old-age security degree of the elderly migrant workers in the future,it is necessary to take a Pareto improvement principle to promote the old-age security system reform of the elderly migrant workers,to urge the elderly migrant workers to sign labor contracts with employers,to do a good job in transferring and continuing the basic old-age insurance relationship of the elderly migrant workers,and to implement diversified old-age security methods for the elderly migrant workers.

关 键 词：刘易斯转折点 缴费负担 劳动力供求弹性 资本供求弹性 农民工养老保障 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]