城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题研究——以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害为例  

Study on the VUCA in the Vulnerability of Urban Rainstorm Flood Prevention and Control System--A Case Study of the Rainstorm on July 20 in Zhengzhou,Henan Province

作　　者：刘凤 LIU Feng(Emergency Management Training Center of the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China(National School of Administration),Beijing 100091,China;Emergency Management Training Center of Hebei Provincial Party School of the Communist Party of China(Hebei Administrative College),Shijiazhuang 050061,China)

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)应急管理培训中心,北京100091 [2]中共河北省委党校(河北行政学院)应急管理培训中心,河北石家庄050061

出　　处：《太原学院学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期32-45,F0002,共15页Journal of Taiyuan University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：中共河北省委党校(河北行政学院)创新工程科研项目。

摘　　要：极端天气引发暴雨洪涝灾害造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失,而“乌卡”时代的到来加剧了城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统的脆弱性,其易变性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性,使公共领导者和基层实践者在价值层面“应该降低”和实践层面“怎么降低”城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题都面临困境。分析自然、社会、管理和技术四类子系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题,并在此基础上,提出以自然灾害综合风险管理为导向解决“乌卡”问题,通过风险识别、风险分析、风险评价、风险控制分别应对城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题特征,可以为提高城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统韧性提供有益思考。Extreme weather causes heavy rains and floods,inducing heavy casualties and property losses,and the arrival of the VUCA era worsens the vulnerability of the urban rain and flood disaster prevention and control system.Its variability,uncertainty,complexity and fuzziness cause public authorities and grassroots practitioners to have troubles in terms of"should reduce"and"how to reduce"the vulnerability at the value and practice level respectively.This paper analyzes the VUCA problem in natural,social,managing and technical subsystems,and proposes to solve the problem with integrated risk management of natural disasters.Through risk identification,analysis,assessment and control,we can deal with the VUCA problem,and improve the resilience of the system.

关 键 词：“乌卡”问题 城市暴雨洪涝灾害 脆弱性 自然灾害综合风险管理 

分 类 号：TU998.4[建筑科学—市政工程]