连续竞价拍卖中羊群行为的驱动机理与逆向选择——基于阿里司法拍卖样本的实证研究  

The Driving Mechanism and Adverse Selection of Herd Behavior in Continuous Bidding Auctions--Empirical Research Based on Alibaba Judicial Auction Samples

作　　者：胡晓鹏[1] 刘子源 HU Xiao-peng;LIU Zi-yuan

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期114-129,共16页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：本文聚焦于在线拍卖的竞价行为,通过引入关联价值定义,深入研究了在线拍卖市场中理性与非理性羊群行为的微观发生机制,并运用变量加总的循环推导分析方法,构造出拍品在网络拍卖中的市场需求曲线,分解出羊群行为在资源配置中的规模效应与结构效应。研究发现,羊群行为不仅会提高拍品成交价格,更会对高质量买家产生一定的挤出效应。依据理论分析结果,以阿里司法拍卖实际竞价数据为样本的实证研究表明,连续竞价拍卖中的羊群行为具有一定的内生性,难以完全规避,而且羊群行为会导致在线拍卖市场出现一定的逆向选择问题。因此,要想做大做强中国在线拍卖市场,必须加大对羊群行为的监测、评估和治理,相关部门积极引导网拍平台发挥大数据优势,通过完善信用机制提高在线拍卖市场的有效竞争水平。This article focused on the bidding behavior in online auctions.By introducing the definition of associated value,it studies the micro-mechanism of rational and irrational herding behavior in internet auction.Using the aggregation analysis method of microeconomics,it constructs the demand curve of items in the online auction market,and deconstructs the scale effect and structural effect of herding behavior in resource allocation.The research found that herd behavior not only increases the transaction price of the auction,but also has a certain crowding out effect on high-quality buyers.The theoretical analysis results and the empirical research using the actual bidding data of Ali judicial auction as a sample show that the herd behavior in the continuous bidding auction has a certain endogenous nature,which is difficult to avoid,and the herd behavior will lead to adverse selection in the online auction market.Therefore,in order to make China’s online auction market bigger and stronger,we must increase the monitoring,evaluation and governance of herd behavior.Relevant departments should also guide platforms to take advantage of big data,and improve market credit mechanisms to promote the effective competition of online auction market.

关 键 词：连续竞价 在线拍卖 羊群行为 逆向选择 

分 类 号：F713.359[经济管理—产业经济]