纵向产业结构、价格指数背离与南北经济差距扩大  

Vertical Industrial Structure,Price Index Divergence and the Widening North-South Gap in China’s Economy

作　　者：赖华侹 刘定 Lai Huating;Liu Ding

机构地区：[1]四川旅游学院、文旅融合发展研究中心,610100 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,400044

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第5期30-50,共21页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国财政货币政策组合演化与宏观经济稳定研究:理论模型、作用机制与定量分析”(22YJC790074);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“‘三重压力’下货币政策与财政政策的协调配合研究”(2022CDJSKJC12);中央高校基本科研业务费(2023CDSKXYJG007)资助。

摘　　要：区域协调发展是加快构建新发展格局,推动高质量发展的重要保障。近年来,南北经济差距呈现分化态势,无疑会对我国经济社会带来不利影响。文章梳理了纵向产业结构、价格指数背离、南北经济差距扩大之间的传导链条及作用机制。实证发现,价格指数背离在纵向产业结构对地区经济发展的影响中起到中介作用:纵向产业结构中,上游产业占比越大,价格指数背离幅度越大,而价格指数背离又会抑制地区经济增长。模型机制分析表明,在纵向产业结构下,由于上下游产品生产中本地要素所占比例的差异,进口要素价格冲击对下游本地要素具有更强的“挤入效应”,推高下游总成本进而遏制CPI下降,致使CPI降幅小于PPI,形成价格指数背离,进而抑制偏重上游产业的北方地区产出增长。“反事实”模拟表明,纵向产业结构增强进口要素价格对下游本地要素的“挤入效应”,加剧价格指数背离。由此可见,纵向产业结构增大地区价格指数背离幅度,加深对偏重上游产业的北方地区经济抑制,最终加剧南北经济分化。Regional economic disparities have persisted as a longstanding issue in China′s economic development,evolving to showcase a differentiated trend characterized by rapid growth in the South and a slowdown in the North.While the economic gap was traditionally delineated as an"East-West gap",concerted efforts through major development initiatives such as the"Western Development,""Northeast Revitalization,"and"Central China Rising"have gradually reduced this gap,fostering a trend of economic convergence.Despite this,data from 2010 onwards reveal an escalating economic polarization between the North and the South,with the economic share disparity widening substantially from 17.62%to 29.56%,an increase of 67.76%.In this context,our research explores the role and implications of the deviations between the Consumer Price Index(CPI)and the Producer Price Index(PPI)on this expanding economic gap,with a focus on the mechanisms which play in the vertical in⁃dustrial structure.Empirical results illustrate that price index divergence function as a mediating entity:areas with a higher concentration of upstream industries in their industrial framework exhibit greater price index deviations,which,in turn,tend to restrain regional economic growth.Utilizing a two-stage production DSGE model for simulation,we found that the vertical industrial structure,influenced by varying labor proportions in upstream and downstream production and the"backward pressure"dynamic of CPI on PPI,ex⁃acerbates the"crowding-in effect"on downstream labor.This arises from a heightened total labor cost,limiting the decrease in final product prices,and consequently engendering a more pronounced decline in the PPI compared to the CPI,thereby fa⁃cilitating price deviation.Our counterfactual analysis further substantiates that this vertical industrial structure amplifies the"crowding-in effect"of import factor prices on downstream labor,exacerbating the existing price deviation.This study elucidates that a vertical industrial structure could potentially

关 键 词：纵向产业结构 价格指数背离 两阶段生产DSGE模型 南北差距 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]