遏制地方政府隐性债务增量的路径优化研究  

Research on Controlling the Increment of Local Government Implicit Debt Path Optimization

作　　者：丁冠森 李一花[1,2] 李佳 Ding Guansen;Li Yihua;Li Jia

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,250100 [2]山东大学国家治理研究院,250100 [3]山东青年政治学院会计学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第5期95-113,共19页South China Journal of Economics

摘　　要：遏制地方政府隐性债务增量,是防范化解地方政府债务风险,统筹发展与安全的重要方面。文章选取2002—2019年有发债记录的511个县区,其中包括被划为重点生态功能区的53个县区、接受生态补偿的113个县区,选择全部未接受生态补偿的样本设立生态功能区研究组、选择全部未划为国家重点生态功能区的样本设立生态补偿研究组,分别以国家重点生态功能区制度(减负)和生态补偿制度(补偿)作为两种不同的政策冲击,通过PSM方法进行一对一近邻匹配和多期DID回归,实证研究减负与补偿这两种不同路径对遏制地方政府债务增长的影响。研究发现,国家重点生态功能区制度显著降低了地方政府的举债规模,而生态补偿制度的效果则恰恰相反。经过平行趋势检验、重新构造研究组、更换被解释变量的度量方式、改变样本范围、安慰剂检验等多种稳健性检验结论保持不变。机制分析表明,两种路径的效果差异与对基础设施投资的激励效应有关。异质性分析发现,重点生态功能区制度对地方政府举债规模的影响在工业发达的县和县级市更为明显;而生态补偿制度对地方政府举债规模的影响在普通县更为明显,与工业发展水平没有显著关系。文章的研究对建立防范化解地方债务风险长效机制,推进人与自然和谐共生的现代化等具有较强的政策启示。Controlling the increment of local government implicit debt is a important aspect of resolving local government debt risks and overall development and security.Although the new Budget Law allowed local governments to issue bonds openly af⁃ter 2015,large amounts of borrowing by local governments through financing vehicles outside the limit are still difficult to con⁃trol.According to IMF estimates,the total debt of China′s local financing platforms is expected to reach 65.7 trillion yuan in 2023.Preventing and controlling local government debt risks and holding the bottom line of no systemic risks have become an important topic in the reports of the 19th and 20th National Congresses of the Party.The Central Financial Work Conference held on October 30-31,2023 further proposed:"Establish a long-term mechanism to prevent and defuse local debt risks."To achieve this goal,we need to accurately identify the institutional causes of the growing scale of local government debt,treat the causes and find solutions to the root causes.The article selects 511 counties and districts across the country with a record of issuing bonds from 2002 to 2019 as research objects,including 53 counties and districts classified as national key ecologi⁃cal functional zones and 113 counties and districts receiving ecological compensation.A total of 398 samples that have not re⁃ceived ecological compensation,including 28 counties and districts classified as national key ecological functional zones,were selected to set up ecological compensation research groups,and a total of 458 samples that have not been classified as national key ecological functional zones,including 88 counties and districts received ecological compensation,were selected to set up ecological compensation research groups.The ecological functional zone research group and the ecological compen⁃sation research group respectively take the national key ecological functional zone system(burden reduction)and the ecologi⁃cal compensation system(compensation)as two diffe

关 键 词：地方政府债务 纵向财政失衡 转移支付 生态补偿 国家重点生态功能区 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]