人民币跨境贸易结算对货币政策有效性的溢出效应分析  

A Spillover Effect Analysis of RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

作　　者：严佳佳 张晨燕 王欣然 Yan Jiajia;Zhang Chenyan;Wang Xinran

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院 [2]清华大学社会科学学院

出　　处：《财政科学》2024年第3期57-68,共12页Fiscal Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“金融扩大开放格局下货币政策与宏观审慎政策有效协调研究”(项目编号:20BJY234)。

摘　　要：促进人民币跨境贸易结算是推动人民币国际化的重要内容。本文从国际收支账户变动角度切入,通过理论分析人民币国际化对货币产出效应、货币价格效应等因素的影响,并运用TVP-FAVAR模型分析探讨人民币贸易结算与货币政策有效性之间的时变动态关系。研究发现,2009年之前人民币跨境贸易结算对货币政策的产出效应和价格效应的影响较低,货币政策独立性较强、有效性较好,随着2009年《跨境贸易人民币结算试点管理办法》等相关政策的实施,人民币跨境贸易结算快速发展,人民币跨境贸易结算增速对货币政策产出增速呈现负向脉冲效应。因此,在追求国家经济转型升级的同时,应不断完善人民币跨境支付体系,加快人民币国际化进程,同时深化汇率制度改革,增强人民币汇率弹性。Promoting RMB trade settlement is an important part of promoting RMB internationalization.From the perspective of changes in international balance of payments accounts,this paper theoretically analyzes the impact of RMB internationalization on monetary output effect,monetary price effect and other factors,and uses TVP-FAVAR model to explore the time-varying dynamic relationship between RMB trade settlement and the effectiveness of monetary policy.It is found that before 2009,the influence of RMB trade settlement on the output effect and price effect of monetary policy is relatively low,and the monetary policy is relatively independent and effective.With the implementation of relevant policies such as the Pilot Management Measures for Cross-border RMB Settlement after 2009,RMB cross-border trade settlement developed rapidly,the growth of RMB trade settlement has a negative pulse effect on the growth of monetary policy output.Therefore,while pursuing national economic transformation and upgrading,it is necessary to continuously improve the cross-border payment system of RMB,accelerate the internationalization process of RMB,deepen the reform of the exchange rate regime and enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 货币政策 溢出效应 TVP-FAVAR模型 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学] F822