基于定额法的屯留区水资源需求预测分析  

Prediction and Analysis of Water Resources Demand in Tunliu District Based on Quota Method

作　　者：杨丽娜 郭亚超 YANG Li-na;GUO Ya-chao(Nanjing Water Resources Planning and Design Institute Co.Ltd.,Shanxi Branch,Changzhi 046000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市水利规划设计院股份有限公司山西分公司,山西长治046000

出　　处：《海河水利》2024年第5期6-9,共4页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：为进一步开展和完善长治市水资源开发利用和节约保护规划,合理配置山西省水资源,支撑屯留区高质量发展战略,结合屯留区水资源需求用户分类,充分探讨水资源开发利用潜力,以2018年作为基准年,基于定额法对屯留区2025、2035和2050年不同时期生活、工业和农业需水进行预测。考虑到不同降水条件下的用水要求,对于农业灌溉分别提出50%、75%、90%和95%降水频率下的需水预测成果,为全区水资源的合理开发、优化配置、有效保护、高效利用和区域经济社会可持续发展提供基础支撑作用。本研究成果可为今后中小城市水资源供需预测与规划配置分析提供参考。In order to further develop and improve the water resources development,utilization,conservation and protection planning in Changzhi City,rationally allocate water resources in Shanxi Province,and support the high-quality development strategy of Tunliu District,the potential of water resources development and utilization was fully discussed in combination with the classification of water resources users in Tunliu District,and the water demands of life,industry and agriculture in Tunliu District in different periods in 2025,2035 and 2050 were predicted based on the quota method,taking 2018 as the base year.Considering the water demand under different rainfall conditions,the forecast results of water demands under 50%,75%,90% and 95% precipitation frequency were put forward for agricultural irrigation,which provided a basic support for the rational development,optimal allocation,effective protection and efficient utilization of water resources in the whole region and the sustainable development of regional economy and society.The research results can provide reference for water resources supply and demand prediction,planning and allocation analysis in small and medium-sized cities in the future.

关 键 词：屯留区 水资源需求 基准年 降水频率 预测成果 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV212.2