基于CatBoost的矿区地质灾害影响因素研究  

Study on Influencing Factors of Geological Disasters in Mining Areas Based on CatBoost

作　　者：高结旺 吴小刚 秦柯[1,2,3,4] 周玉新 唐恺[1,2,3,4] GAO Jiewang;WU Xiaogang;QIN Ke;ZHOU Yuxin;TANG Kai(Sinosteel Maanshan General Institute of Mining Research Co.,Ltd.;State Key Laboratory of Safety and Health for Metal Mines;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Control for Non-coal Open-pit Mines of National Mine Safety Administration;Huawei National Engineering Research Center for Efficient Recycling of Metallic Mineral Resources Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中钢集团马鞍山矿山研究总院股份有限公司 [2]金属矿山安全与健康国家重点实验室 [3]非煤露天矿山灾害防控国家矿山安全监察局重点实验室 [4]华唯金属矿产资源高效循环利用国家工程研究中心有限公司

出　　处：《现代矿业》2024年第4期191-196,共6页Modern Mining

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2021YFC3001303)。

摘　　要：分析研判区域地质灾害的分布特征和影响因素,有利于矿区防灾减灾与可持续发展。以钢铁基地攀枝花市为研究区,收集研究区历史地质灾害471处,梳理主要矿山189座,选择高程、坡度、断裂带等作为分析因子。分别对地质灾害和矿山做核密度分析,研究两者空间相关性;在此基础上利用CatBoost机器学习方法,定量分析各影响因子对研究区地质灾害的影响。结果显示,地质灾害与矿山具有较强的空间相关性;矿山核密度和降雨对地质灾害的影响最大,分别为32.00%和25.10%,其次为地区距铁路和活动断层的距离。研究表明,研究区矿业活动对地质灾害的发生具有显著影响,建议合理规划区域矿业开采活动,做好地质灾害监测预警工作,促进区域可持续发展。The analysis of the distribution characteristics of regional geological disasters and the influencing factors of disasters is conducive to disaster prevention and mitigation and sustainable development in mining areas.Taking Panzhihua City,a steel base,as the research area,471 historical geological disasters in the research area were collected,189 main mines were sorted out,and elevation,slope and fault zone were selected as analysis factors.The kernel density analysis of geological disasters and mines is carried out to study the spatial correlation between the two.On this basis,the CatBoost machine learning method is used to quantitatively analyze the influence of each influencing factor on geological disasters in the study area.The results show that there is a strong spatial correlation between geological disasters and mines.The nuclear density and rainfall of mine have the greatest impact on geological disasters,which are 32.00%and 25.10%,respectively,followed by the distance from the railway and active faults to the area.The research shows that the mining activities in the study area have a significant impact on the occurrence of geological disasters.It is recommended to rationally plan regional mining activities,do a good job in geological disaster monitoring and early warning,and promote regional sustainable development.

关 键 词：地质灾害 矿山 机器学习 核密度分析 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] TD163[矿业工程—矿山地质测量]