1979-2020年中国油菜全要素生产率的动态演变与收敛性  

Dynamic evolution and convergence of total factor productivity of rape in China during 1979-2020

作　　者：刘福星 王彩丽 唐晶 冯中朝[1,2] LIU Fu-xing;WANG Cai-li;TANG Jing;FENG Zhong-chao(College of Economics&Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国油料作物学报》2024年第2期236-244,共9页Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences

基　　金：国家现代农业(油菜)产业技术体系专项经费资助项目(CARS-0012)。

摘　　要：厘清改革开放以来中国油菜全要素生产率发展状况,是提高油菜综合生产能力的逻辑起点。本文基于1979-2020年间11个油菜主产省份的投入产出相关数据,在使用Global Malmquist指数测算全要素生产率基础上,分别使用Kernel密度估计、δ收敛和β收敛,分析其动态演进及收敛性。研究结果表明:从时序特征来看,改革开放以来中国油菜全要素生产率在剧烈波动中实现一定增长,表现为技术诱导型增长模式,而技术效率对其促进作用并不显著;从动态演进来看,油菜全要素生产率增长的地区差异不断缩小。从收敛性来看,油菜全要素生产率的δ值整体呈波动下降态势,自2012年始基本稳定在0.01以下,出现明显收敛趋势,说明存在δ收敛。油菜全要素生产率存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,将空间效应引入收敛模型后,其收敛性依旧显著,且存在正向空间溢出效应。为进一步提高油菜全要素生产率,本文提出推进国家油菜产业技术体系建设、实施区域化发展战略和促进区域协调发展的对策建议。Clarifying the development of rape’s total factor productivity in China since the Reform and Opening-up is a logical starting point to improve the comprehensive production capacity of rape.Based on the input-output related data of 11 rape main producing provinces during 1979-2020,this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution and convergence based on the total factor productivity measured by using Global Malmquist index,using kernel density estimation,δconvergence andβconvergence,respectively.The results show that,according to the time-series characteristics,China′s total factor productivity of rape has achieved certain growth in the midst of dramatic fluctuations since the Reform and Opening-up,demonstrating a technology-induced growth pattern,whereas technical efficiency does not contribute significantly to it.From the dynamic evolution,the geographical variations in the rise of rape′s total factor productivity keep getting smaller.From the perspective of convergence,the overallδvalue of total factor productivity of rape is fluctuating and decreasing,and has essentially stabilized around 0.01 since 2012,displaying an clear convergence tendency,confirming the existence ofδconvergence.The absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence of rape’s total factor productivity exist.The convergence model’s convergence is still significant after accounting for the spatial effect,and there is a favorable spatial spillover effect.It suggests countermeasures to support the development of a national rapeseed industrial technology system,execute a regionalized development plan,and encourage coordinated regional development in order to further increase the total factor productivity of rapeseed.

关 键 词：油菜全要素生产率 动态演变 Kernel密度估计 δ收敛 Β收敛 

分 类 号：S565.4[农业科学—作物学] F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]