基于Vortex模型分析金沙江水电开发对圆口铜鱼种群生存力的影响  

Effect of the Jinsha River hydropower development on population viability of Coreius guichenoti based on the Vortex model

作　　者：杨红义 韩瑞 YANG Hongyi;HAN Rui(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第9期3984-3998,共15页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3203903);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52179083)。

摘　　要：圆口铜鱼(Coreius guichenoti)是长江上游特有鱼类,研究金沙江梯级水电开发背景下圆口铜鱼种群生存力变化对该物种的保护具有重要意义。Vortex模型在传统种群评估方法的基础上,引入种群年龄结构、繁殖体制、性比等因素,并考虑了环境、灾害、遗传等随机性对种群的影响,可模拟种群数量和生存力变化特征,是一种应用广泛的种群生存力分析模型。基于1981—2021年金沙江圆口铜鱼资源调查数据,采用Vortex模型构建了金沙江中下游干流大规模水电开发前、后两个时期圆口铜鱼种群生存力分析模型,考虑了水电开发下,水温、流速等环境变化对圆口铜鱼种群的影响,对比了两个时期圆口铜鱼种群数量、结构及生存力等。结果表明:水电开发前,严重过度捕捞对圆口铜鱼种群产生了显著威胁,10年内种群数量下降了12.5%,百年内种群内禀增长率为0.085,种群的生存和繁殖能力较稳定,灭绝概率为1%;水电开发后,10年内种群数量下降了42%,百年内种群内禀增长率降至-0.087,灭绝概率增大至36.1%,种群平均灭绝时间为83.7年,圆口铜鱼抵抗环境干扰的种群恢复能力降低,种群生存力受到影响。Coreius guichenoti is an endemic fish in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.It is of great significance to study the population viability changes of C.guichenoti under the construction of cascade hydropower stations in the Jinsha River for the protection of this species.The Vortex model improved conventional population assessment methods by incorporating factors like population age structure,reproductive system,sex ratio,and the impact of randomness on populations,such as environmental factors,disasters,population dynamics,and heredity.The model effectively simulates population responses to environmental changes,long⁃term patterns,and the principles governing fluctuations in population size.It is a widely used model for population viability analysis.This research based on resource survey data of the Jinsha River from 1981 to 2021.The Vortex model was used to construct the population dynamic model of C.guichenoti before and after the large⁃scale hydropower development in the main stream of the middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha River.The model considered the impacts of changes in water temperature and velocity environmental factors caused by hydropower development on population characteristics,and compared the population quantities,structures,and viabilities of C.guichenoti between these two periods.The results showed that before hydropower development,overfishing posed a significant threat to the population.Meanwhile,the population quantity decreased by 12.5%in 10 years,and the intrinsic growth rate was 0.085 in 100 years.The population viability was relatively stable,and the extinction probability was 1%.After hydropower development,the population quantity declined by 42%in 10 years,the intrinsic growth rate decreased to-0.087,and the extinction probability increased to 36.1%.The average extinction time of C.guichenoti was 83.7 years.The viability of C.guichenoti to resist environmental disturbance decreased.The population viability was affected.

关 键 词：金沙江 水电开发 圆口铜鱼 种群生存力 漩涡模型 

分 类 号：S931.1[农业科学—渔业资源]