经济政策不确定性的产出时变效应研究——基于企业家信心视角的分析  

Study on the Output Time Varying Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty:Analysis from the Perspective of Entrepreneur Confidence

作　　者：刘杰 王胜华 LIU Jie;WANG Sheng-hua(Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences,Beijing 100142,China)

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院,北京100142

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2024年第5期57-63,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：中国财政科学研究院招标课题(CBD202419)。

摘　　要：随着国内外环境日益复杂,我国经济政策不确定性加大,对企业家信心和经济产出带来重大影响。基于2002年第1季度—2021年第3季度我国经济政策不确定性指数和企业家信心指数,运用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析经济政策不确定性与企业家信心的产出效应及阶段性特征。结果表明:经济政策不确定性对经济产出的影响具有显著的时变特征,经济政策不确定性提高,在短期内对经济产出具有较强的抑制作用,长期影响较弱,且不同发展阶段的影响存在显著差异。企业家信心的高涨能够促进产出增长,影响程度为先增强后减弱;但经济政策不确定性提高会影响企业家对经济运行的当期理性认可成分和未来预期成分,从而对企业家信心产生负向冲击。以上研究结论为加强预期管理、完善政策调控体系、提高经济政策有效性、促进产出增长提供了理论和经验依据。With the complex domestic and international environment,China's economic policy uncertainty is rising,which has a significant impact on entrepreneur confidence and economic output.Based on China's economic policy uncertainty index and entrepreneur confidence index from the first quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2021,this paper uses TVP-VAR model to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty and entrepreneur confidence on output and its periodic characteristics.The results show that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic output has significant time-varying characteristics.The increase of economic policy uncertainty has a strong inhibition effect on economic output in the short term,while the long-term impact is weak,and the impact of different stages is different.The high entrepreneur confidence can promote the growth of output,and the degree of influence increases first and then decreases.However,the increase of economic policy uncertainty will affect the current rational recognition and future expectation of entrepreneurs on economic operation,which will have a negative impact on entrepreneur confidence.The above research conclusions provide a theoretical and empirical basis for strengthening expectation management,improving the policy regulation system,improving the effectiveness of economic policies and promoting output growth.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 企业家信心 经济产出 经济波动 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]