基于ERA5的巴彦淖尔市冬旱发生模式分析  

On the Emergence Patterns of Winter Drought in Bayannur City Based on ERA5

作　　者：红格尔 贾子奇 Honggeer;JIA Zi-Qi(The Territorial Spatial Planning Institute of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010010;Bayannur Linhe District No.5 Middle School,Bayannur,Inner Mongolia 015099)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区国土空间规划院,内蒙古呼和浩特010010 [2]巴彦淖尔市临河区第五中学,内蒙古巴彦淖尔015099

出　　处：《呼伦贝尔学院学报》2024年第1期113-118,共6页Journal of Hulunbuir University

摘　　要：本文以内蒙古自治区巴彦淖尔市为研究区,以ERA5再分析气象数据为数据源,利用时空模式挖掘方法分析了近70年研究区冬旱发生的变化模式。结果表明,从空间上看,巴彦淖尔市冬旱状况由西北至东南逐渐降低;从时间上看,总降水量逐年呈下降趋势,冬季干旱发生率为27.5%,其中中旱频率为10%,轻旱频率为17.5%。冬旱发生时空模式主要为震荡的冷点和热点,说明研究区在90%的时间步长内冬季降水量有显著减少(冷点)或增加(热点)趋势,并在最后的时间步长内也显著减少或增加,也不排除历史上曾经出现过显著冷点或热点。从逐月分析中能看出当年10月和翌年的3月以震荡的冷点为主,而其他月份均出现了震荡的冷点和热点,其中西北部地区模式为震荡的冷点,东南部地区为震荡的热点。Taking Bayannur City as the research area and using monthly precipitation in the winter half-year of Bayannaoer City in the past 70 years as the data source,the present paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter drought in Bayannaoer City.The ERA5 was used to establish the index system,and ArcGIS Pro was used to analyze the data.The results showed that,from the spatial point of view,the winter drought in Bayannur City gradually alleviated from northwest to southeast;from the temporal point of view,the overall precipitation showed a downward trend year by year.The drought occurrence probability was 27.5%,in which the frequency of middle drought was 10%,and the frequency of light drought was 17.5%.In terms of the area change of the hot spot of winter drought,from October to March of the following year,the change of the cold spot area of the oscillation decreased first and then increased,and the change of the hot spot area of the oscillation increased first and then decreased.They variated oppositely.

关 键 词：冬旱 ERA5 新兴时空热点分析 降水量距平百分率 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]