基于长系列数据的密云水库入库径流演变规律及驱动力分析  

Analysis of the evolution patterns and driving forces of inflow into the Miyun Reservoir based on long-term data series

作　　者：段新光 陈然 褚旭 DUAN Xinguang;CHEN Ran;CHU Xu(Beijing Water Conservancy Project Management Center,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Miyun Reservoir Management Office,Beijing 101512,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市水利工程管理中心,北京100038 [2]北京市密云水库管理处,北京101512

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2024年第5期56-64,共9页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：密云水库是华北地区最大的水库,是首都的战略资源库。目前,水库正处于高水位运行,研究径流演变规律及影响因素,对高水位下水库水资源的合理利用具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文运用随机水文学、序列统计等方法,分析径流演变规律,探讨了降水和人类活动对密云水库径流变化的影响。结果表明:密云水库径流年内分配极不均匀,主要集中在7月下旬至8月上旬,8月居多,并且集中期有滞后现象,最大滞后9天;年际变化剧烈,年代变化明显,密云水库流域径流呈下降趋势,1999年以来下降趋势更为显著;非汛期年径流预测持续年份需在24年以上,汛期径流预测持续年份需在40年以上;密云水库流域径流量与降水量的年代、年内变化趋势基本一致,但两者的变化趋势不太一致,不同时期降水与人类活动对径流的影响不同。Miyun Reservoir is the largest reservoir in North China and a strategic resource for the capital.Currently,the reservoir is operating at high water levels,and studying the evolution patterns of inflow and influencing factors is of significant theoretical and practical importance for the rational use of water resources under high water level conditions.This paper uses stochastic hydrology and sequence statistics to analyze the evolution patterns of inflow and discusses the impact of precipitation and human activities on the flow changes in the Miyun Reservoir.The results show that the annual distribution of inflow to the Miyun Reservoir is extremely uneven,mainly concentrated from late July to early August,with August having the most,and there is a lag in the concentration period,with a maximum delay of 9 days.There are dramatic inter-annual variations and clear decadal changes,with the inflow of the Miyun Reservoir basin showing a downward trend,which has been more pronounced since 1999.For non-flood seasons,the prediction of annual inflow should cover more than 24 years,and for flood seasons,more than 40 years.The annual and decadal changes in inflow volume and precipitation in the Miyun Reservoir basin are basically consistent,but their trends do not always match,and the impact of precipitation and human activities on inflow varies in different periods.

关 键 词：密云水库 径流 降水量 人类活动 驱动力 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]