秦淮河流域降水汛期分配不均匀性分析  

Analysis of Uneven Distribution of Precipitation during Flood Season in the Qinhuai River Basin

作　　者：刘美丽 王颖[2] 刘月 LIU Meili;WANG Ying;LIU Yue(Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210008,China;Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局南京分局,江苏南京210008 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2024年第5期65-69,共5页Water Resources Development and Management

摘　　要：为探究秦淮河流域汛期降水不均匀性,本文以秦淮河流域内16个气象站点1978—2019年汛期逐日降水资料,利用反距离权重插值、气候倾向率、SPSS相关分析等方法对秦淮河流域汛期降水集中度P_(CD)和集中期P_(CP)进行分析。结果表明,1978—2019年,秦淮河流域汛期P_(CD)为0.09~0.57,呈不显著增加趋势,总的分布特征是中游高上下游低;P_(CP)波动范围为18.5~21.5旬,呈不显著延迟趋势,地域差异较小;汛期降水量与P_(CD)在流域内表现出一致正相关,而与P_(CP)基本呈负相关。多水年和少水年P_(CD)和P_(CP)空间分布差异较大。研究结果可为秦淮河流域洪涝灾害防治提供依据。To explore the uneven distribution of precipitation during the flood season in the Qinhuai River Basin,this paper analyzed daily precipitation data from 16 meteorological stations within the basin from 1978 to 2019.Methods including inverse distance weighted interpolation,climate tendency rate,and SPSS correlation analysis were employed to analyze the precipitation concentration degree(P_(CD))and concentration period(P_(CP))during the flood season in the Qinhuai River Basin.The results indicate that from 1978 to 2019,the P_(CD) during the flood season in the Qinhuai River Basin ranged from 0.09 to 0.57,showing a non-significant increasing trend.The overall distribution pattern was higher in the middle reaches and lower in the upper and lower reaches.The fluctuation range of P_(CP) was 18.5 to 21.5 pentads,showing a non-significant delayed trend with small regional differences.The precipitation during the flood season showed a consistent positive correlation with P_(CD) within the basin,while it was generally negatively correlated with P_(CP).There were significant spatial differences in the distribution of P_(CD) and P_(CP) during wet and dry years.The research results can provide a basis for flood prevention and control in the Qinhuai River Basin.

关 键 词：秦淮河流域 降水集中度(P_(CD)) 降水集中期(P_(CP)) 时空变化 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]