新冠肺炎疫情对德国财政可持续性的影响——基于“债务刹车”政策视角的分析  

Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Germany’s Fiscal Sustainability:A“Debt Brake”Policy Analysis

作　　者：寇蔻 宋璟玥 Kou Kou;Song Jingyue(School of German Studies,Beijing Foreign Studies University;Investment Promotion Agency of the Ministry of Commerce)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学德语学院,北京100089 [2]商务部投资促进事务局,北京100710

出　　处：《区域国别学刊》2024年第3期104-125,158,159,共24页COUNTRY AND AREA STUDIES

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“百年大变局下中国与欧盟产业链协同发展研究”(项目批准号:21CGJ024)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：德国长期坚持稳健的财政政策,维护收支平衡的财政可持续性,其重要措施是债务刹车政策。该政策于2009年被写入德国的《基本法》,并于2011年正式实施,对德国财政产生了显著影响。但随着2020年新冠肺炎疫情暴发,德国政府重新举债,增加财政支出,以期通过救助政策来稳定经济。德国债务状况随之恶化,财政可持续性面临较大的挑战。本文通过考察“债务刹车”政策实施情况及其在新冠肺炎疫情期间的变化,研究疫情对德国财政可持续性带来的挑战以及德国的应对措施。研究发现,面对财政可持续性失衡的问题,德国政府在国债发行和平衡财政政策长、短期目标上均采取了相应的对策,力图保障“债务刹车”暂停期间德国政府财政的平稳过渡。欧债危机以来,德国稳健的财政政策为德国抵御危机创造了一定的空间,德国政府将在国内和欧盟继续推行其财政稳固政策。Germany’s commitment to fiscal prudence,epitomized by its“debt brake”policy,has been instrumental in maintaining the fiscal sustainability of its balance of payments.Instituted within the Grundgesetz(German Constitution)in 2009 and activated in 2011,the debt brake has significantly contributed to the nation’s fiscal consolidation efforts.However,the unforeseen advent of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compelled the federal government to temporarily suspend this policy,opting instead to escalate public borrowing to implement economic stabilization measures.This deviation has led to a deterioration in Germany’s debt profile,thereby amplifying the risks to fiscal sustainability.This study delves into the pandemic-induced fiscal challenges faced by Germany,analyzing the operational dynamics of the debt brake policy pre-pandemic and its adjustments in response to the crisis.It highlights the German government’s strategic deployment of novel debt instruments and countermeasures aimed at mitigating the fiscal repercussions of the pandemic,while striving to balance the immediate needs of crisis management with the long-term goals of budgetary equilibrium.The analysis underscores Germany’s prepandemic fiscal prudence as a foundational pillar that provided the requisite fiscal leeway to combat the crisis.It also forecasts the continuation of fiscal consolidation efforts by the German federal government,both domestically and within the European Union,in the aftermath of the pandemic.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 财政可持续性 债务刹车 财政政策 德国 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]