考虑故障风险与不确定性的海上风电主变压器检修策略  

Maintenance strategy of offshore wind power main transformer considering fault risk and uncertainty

作　　者：马壮 淡淑恒 MA Zhuang;DAN Shuheng(College of Electrical Power Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海200090

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2024年第2期214-222,共9页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50577040)。

摘　　要：为提高海上风电主变压器检修策略优化的科学性,在保证可靠运行的前提下,提出一种考虑故障风险与不确定性的海上风电主变压器检修策略优选方法。首先,详细分析故障风险成本模型,据此建立海上风电主变压器全寿命周期成本(life cycle cost,LCC)模型,并引入盲数理论将LCC中不确定性参数用数学模型定量进行计算,提高成本估算精度。然后,从成本管理角度出发,分析维修方案对LCC的影响,进而建立以LCC最低为目标的海上风电主变压器检修策略优化模型,并通过改进的布谷鸟搜索算法进行求解。最后,经算例验证,所提模型和检修策略优选方法具有较强的可操作性,能为海上风电主变压器的可靠运行提供一定的参考价值。In order to improve the maintenance strategy of transformers in offshore wind power system,under the premise of ensuring reliable operation,an optimal selection method for the maintenance strategy of transformers in offshore wind power system is proposed,considering fault risks and uncertainties.Firstly,the fault risk cost model is analyzed in detail,based on which a life cycle cost(LCC)model for transformers in offshore wind power system is established.And the blind number theory is introduced to quantitatively calculate the uncertain parameters in LCC using mathematical models,thereby improving the accuracy of cost estimation.Then,from the perspective of cost management,the impact of maintenance plans on LCC is analyzed,and an optimization model for the maintenance strategy of transformers with the lowest LCC as the goal is established,which is solved by an improved Cuckoo algorithm.Finally,the example verifies that the proposed model and the optimal maintenance strategy method have strong operability,which can provide a certain reference value for the reliable operation of transformers in offshore wind power system.

关 键 词：海上风电主变压器 故障风险 LCC 盲数理论 改进的布谷鸟搜索算法 检修策略 

分 类 号：TM407[电气工程—电器]