“阴云犹在”亦或“拨云见日”:早期饥荒经历与农户借贷行为  

“The Clouds Still Remain”or“Dispel the Clouds to See the Sun”:The Impact of Early Famine Experiences on Farmers’Borrowing Behavior

作　　者：张济舟 夏显力[1] 谢守红 ZHANG Jizhou;XIA Xianli;XIE Shouhong(School of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期128-139,共12页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY187)。

摘　　要：从生命历程视角,利用2020年关中平原农户调查数据,分析农村个体生命周期早期饥荒经历对其成年后借贷行为的影响、传导机制及异质性,并探究早期饥荒经历是否存在代际传递效应。研究发现,早期饥荒经历会显著增加农户借贷行为,并通过提高风险偏好、增加人力资本和强化心理韧性来增加借贷行为。异质性分析结果表明,早期饥荒经历对女性户主的家庭借贷行为影响更大,对非正规借贷行为的影响更明显,青少年时期经历饥荒对家庭借贷行为的影响更高。早期饥荒经历存在代际传递效应,即父辈饥荒经历会促进子代借贷行为。基于此,政府在健全农村信贷体系过程中,要关注农户早期饥荒经历及其代际传递,引导农村金融机构通过差异化的信贷产品和服务供给来持续拓展乡村振兴金融服务的广度和深度。As specific practitioners and creators of rural revitalization,farmers are the main carriers of financial support for rural revitalization.Relieving financial constraints on farmers is an important guarantee for achieving increased income for farmers and rural development.This article analyzes the impact,transmission mechanism,and heterogeneity of early famine experiences on rural individuals'borrowing behavior in adulthood from the perspective of life history,using survey data from farmers in the Guanzhong Plain in 2020,and explores whether there is an intergenerational transmission effect of early famine experiences.The research has found that early famine experiences significantly increase farmers'borrowing behavior,and increase borrowing behavior by promoting risk preferences,increasing human capital,and strengthening psychological resilience.Heterogeneity results indicate that early famine experiences have a greater impact on household borrowing behavior for households headed by women,and a more significant impact on informal borrowing behavior.Experiences of famine during adolescence have a higher impact on farmers'borrowing behavior.Further analysis indicates that there is an intergenerational transmission effect in early famine experiences,which means that early famine experience can promote borrowing behavior in offspring.Based on this,in the process of improving the rural credit system,the government should not only focus on the impact of noneconomic factors such as early famine experiences of farmers,but also continuously expand the breadth and depth of financial services for rural revitalization through differentiated credit products and service supply.

关 键 词：早期饥荒经历 农户借贷行为 代际传递 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]