气候变化下我国两面针潜在适生区预测分析  

Prediction Analysis on the Potential Suitable Areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China under Climate Change

作　　者：张志远 钟明利[1] 李波 张可锋[1] 曹后康 ZHANG Zhiyuan;ZHONG Mingli;LI Bo;ZHANG Kefeng;CAO Houkang(College of Pharmacy,Guilin Medical University,Pharmacology Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence of Disease,Guilin 541199,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory for Pharmaceutical Molecular Discovery and Druggability Optimization,Guilin 541199,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林医学院药学院,高发病防治药理学重点实验室,广西桂林541199 [2]广西药物分子发现与成药性优化重点实验室,广西桂林541199

出　　处：《中国中医药信息杂志》2024年第6期7-13,共7页Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82160811);广西药物分子发现与成药性优化重点实验室开放课题(GKLPMDDO-2022-C07)。

摘　　要：目的预测分析气候变化下广西特色药用植物两面针在我国的潜在适生区,为两面针的生态保育和人工栽培提供参考。方法结合49条两面针在我国的地理分布信息、19个环境因子和最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,构建物种分布模型,预测分析当前和未来气候变化下两面针在我国的潜在适生区。结果当前气候情景下,两面针在我国的潜在适生区主要取决于4个环境因子:最冷季度降水量(Bio19)、最暖季度降水量(Bio18)、最干季度降水量(Bio17)、年平均气温(Bio1);未来气候情景下,两面针高适生区质心主要向东北和西北方向迁移,迁移距离范围为13.63~153.95km;两面针在未来气候情景下稳定不变的高适生区与当前相比将减少至21.68%左右,且主要分布在广西西南地区,这些稳定不变区域可作为两面针半人工种植的首选地区。结论本研究结果有助于为制定两面针合理的生态保育和人工栽培策略提供科学依据,以减少未来气候变化对两面针种群传播的影响。Objective To predict and analyze the potential suitable areas of the Guangxi characteristic medicinal plant Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China under climate change;To provide reference for ecological conservation and artificial cultivation of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.Methods Based on the 49 pieces of geographical distribution information of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China,19 environmental factors,and the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model,a species distribution model was constructed to predict and analyze the potential growth areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.under current and future climate change.Results Under the current climate change,the potential suitable areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China mainly depended on 4 environmental factors:precipitation in the coldest season(Bio19),precipitation in the warmest season(Bio18),precipitation in the driest season(Bio17),and average annual temperature(Bio1).Under the future climate change,the center of mass of the high suitable areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.will mainly migrate to the northeast and northwest,and the migration distance will range from 13.63 km to 153.95 km.Compared with the present,the stable and unchanged high suitable areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.under future climate change will be reduced to about 21.68%,and mainly distributed in southwest Guangxi,and these stable and unchanged areas will become the first choice for semi-artificial planting of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.Conclusion The results are helpful to provide scientific basis for formulating reasonable ecological conservation and artificial cultivation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the population spread of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.

关 键 词：两面针 气候变化 最大熵 潜在适生区 预测分析 

分 类 号：R282.1[医药卫生—中药学]