考虑恐慌情绪和信息传递的行人疏散模拟  

Simulation of pedestrian evacuation considering panic emotion and information transmission

作　　者：宋英华[1,2] 李俊逸 郭晨[1,2] SONG Yinghua;LI Junyi;GUO Chen(China Research Center for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第5期155-161,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21&ZD127);国家文化和旅游科技创新工程项目(20211g 0085);湖北省社会科学基金项目(HBSK2022YB255)。

摘　　要：为分析应急疏散过程中恐慌情绪和信息传递对行人疏散效率的影响,提出基于热传递原理的情绪感染模型和元胞自动机场域模型相结合的疏散模拟方法。该方法通过量化的恐慌值影响行人决策偏好,并引入信息扩散模型,修正成功接收到出口信息的人群的疏散路径,模拟研究恐慌情绪作用下行人受到信息引导后疏散行为的变化。研究结果表明:恐慌情绪感染主要出现在人群聚集时期,伴随恐慌的蔓延,整体疏散效率降低,且对小规模行人疏散影响效果更显著;随着危险源向出口靠近,恐慌情绪使行人做出非理性决策的可能性更大,导致出口处人群出现分散再聚集现象;有效的信息传递可以降低恐慌情绪影响、提高疏散出口利用率,且信息传递影响效果随疏散人数的减少和危险源向出口的靠近而有所增强。研究结果可为提升应急疏散效率提供理论支持。In order to analyze the influence of panic emotion and information transmission on the evacuation efficiency of pedestrian during emergency evacuation,an evacuation simulation method combining the emotion infection model based on heat transfer principle and the cellular automata floor field model was proposed.This model influenced the decision preference of pedestrian through the quantified panic value,and introduced the information diffusion model to modify the evacuation path of people who successfully receive information,thus the change in evacuation behavior of pedestrian guided by information under the action of panic emotion was simulated.The results show that the panic emotion infection mainly occurs in the crowd gathering period,and with the spread of panic,the overall evacuation efficiency is reduced,and the effect on small-scale pedestrian evacuation is more significant.With the hazard source approaching the exit,the panic emotion makes the pedestrian make irrational decisions,which leads to the phenomenon of dispersion and regathering of the crowd at the exit.The effective information transmission can reduce the influence of panic emotion and improve the utilization rate of evacuation exit,and the effect of information transmission is enhanced with the reduction of the number of evacuees and the proximity of hazard source to the exit.The research results can provide theoretical support for enhancing the efficiency of emergency evacuation.

关 键 词：信息传递 恐慌情绪 应急疏散 元胞自动机 场域模型 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]