基于系统动力学的察尔汗盐湖钾盐资源承载状态预断评估  

Prediction and Assessment of Potassium Salt Resources Carrying State in Qarhan Salt Lake Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：王明阳 卓越 曾维华[1,3] 王建萍 WANG Mingyang;ZHUO Yue;ZENG Weihua;WANG Jianping(College of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875,China;Qinghai Institute of Salt Lakes,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xining,810008,China;Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xining,810001 China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]中国科学院青海盐湖研究所,青海西宁810008 [3]中国科学院西北高原生物研究所,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《盐湖研究》2024年第3期11-20,共10页Journal of Salt Lake Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U20A2088)。

摘　　要：针对察尔汗盐湖钾盐开采规模不断扩大引发的资源可持续问题,构建了钾盐资源承载率指标,基于系统动力学搭建了察尔汗盐湖钾盐资源可持续利用系统仿真模型;利用所建模型,对2020—2040年间察尔汗盐湖钾盐资源承载状态进行预测评估;模拟预测了5种开发情景下盐湖水资源与氯化钾资源承载状态的变化情况。研究结果表明:受柴达木盆地气候变暖趋势影响,未来察尔汗盐湖钾盐资源承载率将由2022年的2.3降低至2040年的1.2;通过降低开采强度与提高技术水平等方法可以有效缓解钾盐资源承载率过高的情况,同时需要通过合理制定生产计划与提高技术水平研发等手段以确保氯化钾资源长期稳定供应。With the increasing demand for potassium chloride,the intensity of potash resource exploitation in Qarhan Salt Lake is constantly improving,and resource depletion is imminent.Aiming at this situation,the carrying rate index of potash resources was designed to describe the degree of overmining,and a dynamic model of potash resource mining system in Qarhan Salt Lake was constructed.Five scenarios were set to de-scribe the future developments,and the carrying status of potash resources in Qarhan Salt Lake in the next 20 years was predetermined.The results of salt lake water resources and potash resource carrying rate in forecast period show that due to the trend of climate warming,the carrying rate of water resources of Qarhan Salt Lake will decrease in the future,but the overall situation is still in an overloaded state.The sustainable supply of pot-ash resources can be ensured by reducing mining intensity and improving the technical level.So it is necessary to rationally formulate production plans and improve technical research.

关 键 词：察尔汗盐湖 钾盐资源 系统动力学 钾盐资源承载状态 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] O614.113[天文地球—地质学]