基于长期监测数据的全寿命周期内桥梁温致挠度极值的预测  

Life-cycle Prediction of Bridge Temperature-induced Deflection Extremes Based on Long-term Monitoring Data

作　　者：毕朝阳 周金 王高新 BI Chaoyang;ZHOU Jin;WANG Gaoxin(China Railway Communications Investment Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanning,Guangxi 530219,China;China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁交通投资集团有限公司,广西南宁530219 [2]中国矿业大学,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《公路工程》2024年第2期7-13,共7页Highway Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51908545);江苏省自然科学基金青年基金项目(BK20180652)。

摘　　要：挠度是检验桥梁健康状态的重要参数之一,精准评估桥梁挠度在全寿命周期内是否超限具有重要工程意义。基于某桥挠度和温度场的长期监测数据,分析了桥梁上、下游挠度的时变监测规律,考察了挠度和季节温度之间的相关性监测规律,并通过研究桥梁挠度累积概率特性及其最佳累积分布函数,提出了同时考虑季节温度变化和日变化随机特性影响的桥梁挠度全寿命周期预测方法。结果表明:桥梁挠度具有良好的季节变化特征,且与温度之间具有良好的相关性,因此在预测全寿命周期挠度值时需要充分考虑季节温度的影响;每天内的挠度极大值呈现出平稳随机特征,因此在挠度预测时还需要充分考虑挠度极大值的随机特性影响;挠度极大值的平稳随机特征可采用概率统计特性描述,相较于Normal和Weibull分布函数,GEV分布函数可以较好地描述挠度极大值的概率统计特性;提出了挠度全寿命周期预测方法,挠度在全寿命周期内的预测值由两部分组成,即由季节温度引起的挠度值和极值随机特性引起的挠度值,其中季节温度占主要影响;计算出了桥梁挠度在全寿命周期内的预测值为190.14 mm。研究成果可为桥梁结构服役安全评估提供参考。Deflection is one of the important parameters to test the health status of bridges.It is of great engineering significance to accurately predict the extreme value of deflection in the whole life cycle.Based on the long-term monitoring data of deflection and temperature field of a bridge,the time-varying monitoring law of deflection of the bridge is analyzed,and the monitoring correlation law between deflection and seasonal temperature is investigated.By studying the cumulative probability characteristics of bridge deflection and its optimal cumulative distribution function,a new method for bridge deflection lifetime prediction considering the influence of seasonal temperature and diurnal random characteristics is proposed.The results show that the deflection of bridge has obvious seasonal variation characteristics,and has a good correlation with temperature.Therefore,the influence of seasonal temperature should be fully considered when predicting the extreme deflection value.The maximum value of deflection in each day shows stationary stochastic characteristics,so the influence of stationary stochastic characteristics of deflection maximum should be fully considered in the prediction of deflection extreme value.The stationary stochastic characteristics of deflection maximum can be described by probabilistic and statistical features.Compared with Normal and Weibull distribution function,GEV distribution function can better describe the probability and statistical characteristics of the extreme deflection.The extremum prediction method of deflection in the whole life cycle is proposed.The deflection in the whole life cycle is caused by seasonal temperature and stationary random characteristics.The extreme deflection of bridge in the whole life cycle is 190.14 mm.The research results can provide reference for service safety assessment of bridge structures.

关 键 词：桥梁结构 挠度 全寿命周期 概率统计特性 极值预测 

分 类 号：U446[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]