中国油气行业甲烷排放估算与减排分析  

Estimation and reduction analysis of methane emissions in China's oil and gas industry

作　　者：李兴春 程鑫 薛明 王玉希 贾国伟 闫业涛 孙剑毅[7] 贾宇[8] LI Xingchun;CHENG Xin;XUE Ming;WANG Yuxi;JIA Guowei;YAN Yetao;SUN Jianyi;JIA Yu(State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Pollution Control,Beijing 102206,China;CNPC Research Institute of Safety&Environment Technology,Beijing 102206,China;China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102299,China;SEPCOIII Electric Power Construction Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao,Shandong 266035,China;The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21,Beijing 100038,China;Southern Petroleum Exploration and Development Co.,Ltd.,Haikou,Hainan 571127,China;Research Institute of Experimental and Detection of PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Company,Karamay,Xinjiang 834000,China;PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]石油石化污染物控制与处理国家重点实验室 [2]中国石油集团安全环保技术研究院有限公司 [3]中国石油大学(北京) [4]山东电力建设第三工程有限公司 [5]中国21世纪议程管理中心 [6]南方石油勘探开发有限责任公司 [7]中国石油塔里木油田公司实验检测研究院 [8]中国石油西南油气田公司

出　　处：《天然气工业》2024年第4期160-170,共11页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司基础性前瞻性科技专项“油气节能减污降碳协同增效新方法研究”(编号:2023ZZ1302);中国石油天然气集团有限公司国家高端智库研究课题“非二氧化碳温室气体排放形势及对策研究”(编号:2023-14)。

摘　　要：甲烷是仅次于二氧化碳的第二大温室气体,据统计全球甲烷排放中石油天然气行业排放占比高达三分之一,加强甲烷排放管控对推动“双碳”目标的实现具有重要的意义。为此,结合油气消费量预期、行业控排预期等,估算了2021—2060年中国油气行业甲烷排放量;并进一步分析了减排目标下技术减排潜力和减排成本,最后结合各类排放源占比及现有减排技术的成本效益,测算了2030年与2060年2个时间节点油气行业甲烷减排的边际成本。研究结果表明:①2021—2060年期间,油气行业甲烷排放量略有下降,天然气系统甲烷排放量增速变缓,其中运输和输配环节有较大减排潜力;②油气行业90%的甲烷排放量集中在30%的排放源中,有10%~20%的甲烷无法彻底通过技术减排;③在2030年、2060年实施的减排技术中,具有收益的技术比例分别达22.0%和44.4%;④2030、2060年的甲烷平均单位减排成本分别为22.33元/m^(3)和14.57元/m^(3)。结论认为,中国油气行业在中长期需要加快推进甲烷排放检测、报告、核查体系的建设,推动排放数据的精细化,并通过绿色金融、中国碳减排核证方法学开发等多种方式,持续提升行业甲烷减排积极性。Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas(GHG)after carbon dioxide.According to statistics,methane emissions account for as high as one-third of GHG emissions in the global oil and gas industry.Hence,it is of great significance to strengthen the control of methane emissions for the realization of the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goals.In this paper,methane emissions in China's oil and gas industry are estimated for the period of 2021-2060,depending upon the expected oil and gas consumption and the expected emission control in the industry.Then,the potential and cost of technical emissions reduction under the emissions reduction target are analyzed.Finally,the marginal cost of methane emissions reduction in the oil and gas industry at two milestones(2030 and 2060)are estimated by taking into account the proportion of each type of emission source and the cost-effectiveness of the existing emissions reduction technologies.The results are obtained in four aspects.First,between 2021 and 2060,methane emissions will see a slight decline in the oil and gas industry,with slow contribution from the natural gas system,where great emissions reduction potential lies in transmission and distribution processes.Second,90%methane emissions in the oil and gas industry come from 30%sources,of which around 10%–20%cannot be eradicated through technological means.Third,the proportion of effective emissions reduction technologies employed by 2030 and 2060 will reach 22.0%and 44.4%respectively.Fourth,the average unit cost of methane emissions reduction by 2030 and 2060 will be RMB22.33/m^(3) and RMB14.57/m^(3),respectively.It is concluded that China's oil and gas industry needs to accelerate the construction of methane emission detection,reporting,and verification system in a medium to long run,promote the refinement of emission data,and consistently enhance the industry's initiative in methane emissions reduction through various means,such as green finance and the development of CCER methodologies.

关 键 词：油气系统 甲烷排放 核算 减排 边际成本 碳价格 

分 类 号：TE991.1[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]