Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery  

作　　者：Peng Liu Yong-Wei Chen Che Liu Yin-Tao Wu Wen-Chao Zhao Jian-Yong Zhu Yang An Nian-Xin Xia 

机构地区：[1]Faculty of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery,the First Medical Center,Chinese PLA General Hospital,Beijing 100853,China [2]Institute of Hepatobiliary Surgery of Chinese PLA,Beijing 100853,China [3]Key Laboratory of Digital Hepetobiliary Surgery of Chinese PLA,Beijing 100853,China

出　　处：《Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International》2024年第3期288-292,共5页国际肝胆胰疾病杂志（英文版）

摘　　要：Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected.The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables.The C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.Results:During the follow-up period,a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence,and the recurrence rate was 35.5%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones>2 years[odds ratio(OR)=2.567,95%confidence interval(CI):1.270-5.187,P=0.009],symptomatic gallstones(OR=2.589,95%CI:1.059-6.329,P=0.037),multiple gallstones(OR=2.436,95%CI:1.133-5.237,P=0.023),history of acute cholecystitis(OR=2.778,95%CI:1.178-6.549,P=0.020)and a greasy diet(OR=2.319,95%CI:1.186-4.535,P=0.014)were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables.The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692,suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence.Moreover,the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusions:The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might hel

关 键 词：GALLSTONE Gallbladder-preserving surgery RECURRENCE Risk factors NOMOGRAM 

分 类 号：R657.42[医药卫生—外科学]