长江梯级水库群联合调度成效、挑战及对策  

Achievements,Challenges and Measures of Joint Operation of Cascade Reservoirs on the Yangtze River

作　　者：陈进[1,2] CHEN Jin(Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院,武汉430010 [2]武汉大学水利电力学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2024年第5期1-7,共7页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(U2040206);中国工程院院地合作项目(HB2023B14)。

摘　　要：经过70 a的建设,长江流域控制性水库群基本建成。以三峡水库为核心的梯级水库群联合调度已经开展10 a。在总结控制性水库群在防洪、供水、生态和应急联合调度取得成绩的基础上,分析控制性水库群及与水网工程联合调度面临的问题和挑战,提出了相应的对策建议。研究表明:水库群联合调度因流域防洪调度而启,目前在防洪、抗旱供水、生态环境和应急等公益调度中发挥了重要作用。气候变化及水文中长期预报不确定性是联合调度面临的主要挑战,其次是水库群联合调度与单个水库多目标调度利益协调、定量评价调度效果及合理的补偿等管理问题。加强“四预”是解决气候变化和人类活动不确定性的主要对策。水库群与水网工程联合调度可以更广泛地发挥水利工程水安全保障作用。建立科学合理的水工程群联合调度体制和机制是解决联合调度管理问题的有效措施。After seven decades of construction,the Yangtze River basin’s control reservoir group has reached completion.The joint operation of cascade reservoirs,with the Three Gorges reservoir as its core,has been ongoing for ten years.This study presents an analysis of the achievements,challenges,and solutions stemming from this joint operation in flood control,water supply,ecology,and emergency response.The findings underscore the pivotal role played by joint reservoir group operation in flood control,drought relief,water supply,ecological preservation,and emergency management.The main challenges identified are climate change and the uncertainties in medium-to long-term hydrological forecasts.Additionally,management issues such as coordinating interests between joint reservoir group operations and single reservoir multi-objective operations,quantifying operational effectiveness,and devising fair compensation mechanisms are also significant hurdles.The primary solution proposed involves strengthening the“Four Preemptive”system,namely,forecasting,early warning,contingency planning,and rehearsal,to address climate change uncertainties and human activities’impacts.Furthermore,enhancing joint reservoir and water network operations can significantly bolster water security of hydraulic projects.Establishing a scientifically sound and equitable joint operation system and mechanism for water project groups emerges as a crucial and effective measure.

关 键 词：梯级水库群 水网工程 联合调度 变化环境 应对措施 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]