杭州湾及舟山海域可能最大台风风暴潮增水的数值研究  

Numerical Study on Possible Maximum Storm Surge over Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Archipelago

作　　者：楚栋栋 李梦雨 车助镁 元媛[1] 栾华龙 张继才 CHU Dong-dong;LI Meng-yu;CHE Zhu-mei;YUAN Yuan;LUAN Hua-long;ZHANG Ji-cai(River Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center,Department of Natural Resources of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310000,China;State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院河流研究所,武汉430010 [2]浙江省自然资源厅海洋监测预报中心,杭州310000 [3]华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海200241

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2024年第5期72-78,102,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510704);国家重点研发计划重点专项(2017YFA0604100);国家自然科学基金项目(41876086);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2023293/HL,CKSF2021530/HL);国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2040202);中国博士后面上基金项目(2021M700540)。

摘　　要：基于有限体积海洋模型(FVCOM)构建了一个覆盖中国渤海、黄海和东海的高分辨率风暴潮模型,模拟了1509号台风“灿鸿”引发的风暴潮事件,风暴潮水位模拟结果与实测数据吻合良好。基于最佳台风路径集数据集提供的风场和气压数据,建立了中国近海台风最大风速和最低中心气压的线性回归联系,相关系数达到0.96。在此基础上,以可能最大热带气旋参数为基础,构造了多种假想台风路径,计算了杭州湾和舟山海域的可能最大风暴潮增水。结果表明,沿垂直于海岸线方向登陆的台风在杭州湾和舟山海域引起的风暴潮增水极值最高。杭州湾湾顶可能最大风暴潮水位达8.76 m,舟山海域可能最大风暴潮水位达2.62 m。结果可为杭州湾和舟山海域海洋工程的风险评估和防灾减灾提供参考。A high-resolution storm surge model encompassing the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,and East China Sea is developed based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model(FVCOM)to simulate and hindcast the storm surges induced by Typhoon Chan-hom.The model’s surge predictions align closely with observed tidal gauge data.Based on the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS)datasets,a linear regression is established between typhoons’maximum wind speeds and their minimum central pressures along China’s coast,achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.96.On this basis,a variety of hypothetical typhoon paths are constructed based on the maximum wind intensity model to calculate the possible maximum storm surges(PMSS)in the Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Archipelago.Our findings indicate that typhoons landing perpendicular to the coastline yield the highest surge elevations,peaking at 8.76 m in Hangzhou Bay and 2.62 m in the Zhoushan Archipelago.This research offers valuable insights for the risk assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation for marine engineering projects in the Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Archipelago areas.

关 键 词：风暴潮 FVCOM 可能最大风暴潮增水 数值模型 杭州湾 舟山海域 

分 类 号：P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]