基于灰色理论的广西水果冷链物流需求预测研究  

Research on Demand Prediction of Fruit Cold Chain Logistics in Guangxi Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：张卜云 梁智 ZHANG Bu-yun;LIANG Zhi(Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535000,China)

机构地区：[1]北部湾大学,广西钦州535000

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2024年第5期99-103,共5页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：在新发展格局背景下,水果冷链物流对释放居民消费潜力具有重要意义。在分析广西水果发展现状的基础上,首先运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对广西水果冷链物流需求量进行预测;其次设计广西水果冷链物流需求量的影响指标,并从经济发展水平、供需水平、交通运输发展水平、互联网发展水平、快递业发展水平五大角度选取其中16个影响因素构建指标体系,接着基于灰色关联分析模型研究各指标与广西水果冷链物流需求量之间的相关性。实证结果表明:①未来5年广西冷链物流的市场需求仍呈现出上升趋势;②第三产业增长值是对广西水果冷链物流需求量影响最大的关键因素。因此,提出以下三个建议:①提高冷链物流节点建设;②提高冷链物流的技术水平;③提高对不同水果冷链复杂性的认识,以促进广西水果冷链物流的高质量发展。In the context of the new development pattern,fruit cold chain logistics is of great significance to release the consumption potential of residents.On the basis of analyzing the development status of fruits in Guangxi,firstly,the grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the demand for fruit cold chain logistics in Guangxi.Secondly,the influencing indicators of the demand for fruit cold chain logistics in Guangxi were designed,16 of which were selected from the five perspectives of economic development level,supply and demand level,transportation development level,Internet development level and express delivery industry development level to construct the index system of influencing factors,and the grey correlation analysis was used to research the correlation between each influencing factor and the demand for fruit cold chain logistics in Guangxi.The empirical results show that:①the market demand of cold chain logistics in Guangxi will still show an obvious upward trend in the next five years;②the growth value of the tertiary industry is the key factor that has the greatest impact on the demand for fruit cold chain logistics in Guangxi.According to this paper,the following three suggestions are put forward:①improve the construction of cold chain logistics nodes;②improve the technical level of cold chain logistics;③improve the understanding of the complexity of different fruit cold chains,so as to promote the high-quality development of fruit cold chain logistics in Guangxi.

关 键 词：灰色关联分析 灰色GM(1 1)模型 需求预测 冷链物流 广西水果 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济]