Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China  

作　　者：CUI Yunxia LIU Xiaopeng JIANG Chunmei TIAN Rujun NIU Qingrui 

机构地区：[1]School of Geography and Planning,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China [2]Key Laboratory(China-Arab)of Resource Evaluation and Environmental Regulation of Arid Region in Ningxia,Yinchuan 750021,China

出　　处：《Chinese Geographical Science》2024年第3期420-435,共16页中国地理科学（英文版）

基　　金：Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42071230)。

摘　　要：China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

关 键 词：risk of returning to ecological poverty autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) exponential smoothing model back propagation neural network(BPNN) Liupan Mountain Region China 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]