Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin,China  

作　　者：INGABIRE Romaine CHANG Yuru LIU Xia CAO Bo UMUGWANEZA Adeline SHEN Yanjun 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources,Hebei-Key Laboratory of Water Saving Agriculture,Center for Agricultural Re-sources Research,Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050022,China [2]Uni-versity of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Insti-tute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China

出　　处：《Chinese Geographical Science》2024年第3期564-578,共15页中国地理科学（英文版）

基　　金：Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFD1700500);Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province,China(No.D2021503001,D2021503011)。

摘　　要：Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones.Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning.Integrated with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin.Historical hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model.After bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,respectively.Although uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the basins.Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months.Overall,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is project

关 键 词：RUNOFF climate change MIKE11-NAM model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) upper Daqinghe Basin China 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P333[天文地球—水文科学]