基于广义相加模型的北京市2018—2022年地面臭氧气象影响要素研究  

Research on the influence of meteorological factors on ground-level ozone in Beijing from 2018 to 2022 based on generalized additive model

作　　者：李芊昀 王自溪 李杰[1] 杜惠云 杨文夷[1] 胡波[1] 王哲[1] 王自发[1,2] LI Qianyun;WANG Zixi;LI Jie;DU Huiyun;YANG Wenyi;HU Bo;WANG Zhe;WANG Zifa(State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2024年第4期206-214,共9页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(No.2022YFC3700703)。

摘　　要：臭氧污染是制约北京市环境空气质量持续改善的关键因子,气象是导致臭氧浓度超过国家标准的重要因素,探究气象要素与臭氧浓度之间的关系,对有效治理臭氧污染具有重要意义.本文分析了2018—2022年北京市地面臭氧浓度的演变特征,并利用气象要素和臭氧日最大8 h滑动平均浓度(O_(3)-8 h)观测数据,基于广义相加模型和合成少数过采样技术,构建了适用于北京的臭氧非线性回归预测模型,识别了影响北京市O_(3)-8 h浓度日际变化气象因子的重要程度.结果显示:(1)近5年北京市臭氧浓度仍处于高位波动阶段,5—9月是臭氧浓度超标最严重的时期.(2)回归模型对高浓度臭氧具有良好的预测能力,其对北京市5—9月O_(3)-8 h浓度变化的方差解释率为83.3%.(3)基于回归模型发现,日最高气温、风向、紫外辐射强度、相对湿度、风速、地表平均气压与O_(3)-8 h浓度之间均有显著的非线性关系,其中,日最高气温、风向和紫外辐射强度为主导O_(3)-8 h浓度变化的气象要素.在高温、主导风向为偏南风、紫外辐射强度较强的气象条件下,北京市O_(3)-8 h浓度超标的可能性较高.Ozone pollution poses a significant obstacle to the constant improvement of air quality in Beijing,with meteorological conditions exerting a prominent influence on short-term ozone concentration.Hence,investigating the relationship between meteorological condition and ozone concentration is valuable for effectively managing ozone pollution.We utilized daily ozone concentration data spanning from 2018 to 2022 to analyze the surface ozone variation characteristics in Beijing over the past five years.Subsequently,based on the observation data of meteorological elements and the daily maximum 8-hour moving average concentration of ozone (O_(3)-8 h),by applying a Generalized Additive Model and utilizing the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique,we constructed a nonlinear regression model with a better predictability for high ozone concentration to identify the influential level of meteorological factors on ozone concentration.The results indicated as follows:(1) Over the past five years,ozone concentration was still at a high fluctuating stage,with the peak concentration occurring during the period May to September.(2) The regression model with an 83.3%of the deviance explained can effectively simulate high ozone concentration.(3) Significant non-linear relationship between O_(3)-8 h and several factors,including daily maximum temperature,wind direction,ultraviolet radiation,relative humidity,wind speed and surface average pressure was showed.Specifically,daily maximum temperature,wind direction and ultraviolet radiation emerged as the three dominant variables influencing O_(3)-8 h levels.Notably,high daily maximum temperature and strong ultraviolet radiation,along with southerly winds prevailing,were found to potentially elevate ozone concentration.

关 键 词：广义相加模型 合成少数过采样技术 臭氧浓度 气象要素 影响效应 北京市 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]