高速公路长大下坡路段的事故预测模型研究  

Research on Expressway Accident Prediction Model in Long Downhill Sections

作　　者：杨丽 YANG Li(Shanxi Provincial Highway Bureau,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省公路局,山西太原030006

出　　处：《山西交通科技》2024年第1期102-107,共6页Shanxi Science & Technology of Transportation

摘　　要：近年来,高速公路长大下坡路段交通事故发生率较高,但对事故形成原因研究较少。依据某省高速公路交通事件管理系统(TIMS)监测数据,分析判断出高速公路事故的主要原因是道路自身的线形因素。高速公路下坡路段交通事故类型按事故主体可分为车车碰撞类、车路碰撞类和车辆自身类。建立3个交通事故回归模型,分析得出事故主要致因和次要致因,明确道路线形指标变化对交通事故数量的影响。在此基础上,提出了一系列针对性的交通安全改善措施和建议。Recently,expressway accidents have occurred frequently,especially in the long downhill sections,but the research on the accident causes is rare.In this paper,according to the monitoring data from the Traffic Incident Management System(TIMS)of an expressway,the main cause of expressway accidents is the alignment factor of the road itself.Based on the accident subject,expressway accidents in long downhill sections can be divided into vehicle-vehicle collision,vehicle-road collision,and the vehicle itself.Three accident regression models were established to analyze the main and secondary causes of the accidents and clarify the influences of the change in the road alignment indexes on the accident amount.On this basis,a series of targeted measures and suggestions were put forward for improving traffic safety.

关 键 词：长大下坡路段 事故成因分析 事故回归模型 改善措施 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]