二元共载系统退化相关的两阶段退化模型及可靠性分析  

A two-stage degradation model and reliability analysis related to degradation of binary load-sharing systems

作　　者：张帆[1,2] 程伯晗 王鹏[1,2] 董磊[1,2] ZHANG Fan;CHENG Bohan;WANG Peng;DONG Lei(Key Laboratory of Civil Aircraft Airworthiness Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Science and Technology Innovation Research Institute,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航航空器适航审定技术重点实验室,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学科技创新研究院,天津300300 [3]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《航空学报》2024年第7期186-202,共17页Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB1600601);国家自然科学基金(U2133203);中央高校基本科研业务费(3122022094)。

摘　　要：针对复杂机载系统中二元共载组件退化受退化进程相互作用与负载分担影响的问题,提出了一种考虑退化速率相互作用的两阶段退化模型。首先,研究基于退化速率相互作用的双组件退化依赖性表征方法,建立不考虑负载分担影响的双组件退化相关性模型。其次,考虑负载分担对退化速率的影响,以某一组件失效为变点,将系统退化进程分为2个阶段,构建考虑负载分担影响的双组件退化相关性模型。模型的参数采用极大似然估计法进行估计,并构建系统的可靠性模型与剩余寿命模型。最后,以一航空部件为例进行二元退化相关的共载系统可靠性计算,所提方法为复杂系统二元共载组件退化失效的可靠性分析问题提供支持。A two-stage degradation model considering degradation rate interactions is proposed for the degradation of binary load-sharing components in highly complex airborne systems affected by degradation process interactions and load sharing.Firstly,a two-component degradation dependence characterization method based on degradation rate interaction is investigated to establish a two-component degradation correlation model without considering the influence of load sharing.Secondly,considering the influence of load sharing on degradation rate,the system degradation pro⁃cess is divided into two stages with a component failure as a variable point,and a two-component degradation correla⁃tion model with the influence of load sharing is constructed.The model parameters are estimated using the great likeli⁃hood estimation method,and the reliability model and the remaining life model of the system are constructed.Finally,taking an aviation component as an example,the reliability calculation of the load-sharing system related to binary deg⁃radation is carried out,and the proposed method provides support for the reliability analysis of the degradation and fail⁃ure of binary load-sharing components of complex systems.

关 键 词：退化相关性 负载分担 可靠性分析 蒙特卡洛 剩余寿命 

分 类 号：V240.2[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]