区域贸易协定的“稳出口”效应——基于中国出口产品数据的实证分析  

The"Export Stabilization"Effect of Regional Trade Agreements--Empirical Analysis based on China's Export Product Data

作　　者：张爱瑜 王睿[1,2] 喻浩 Zhang Ai-yu;Wang Rui;Yu Hao

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院 [2]重庆大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2024年第5期76-86,共11页Economist

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目“技术贸易安全发展战略研究”(2023-HYZD-05);重庆英才计划包干制项目“统筹发展和安全视域下提升‘一带一路’发展韧性的策略与路径研究”。

摘　　要：面对复杂严峻的外部环境,最大限度实现出口稳定对我国外贸高质量发展具有重要作用。本文利用2000—2019年中国出口产品数据从“规模”角度实证研究了区域贸易协定对出口稳定的影响。研究发现区域贸易协定签署及贸易协定深度深化均能促进中国对贸易伙伴国的出口稳定。机制分析表明:贸易政策不确定性降低、伙伴国营商环境改善以及双边价值链关联是区域贸易协定促进出口稳定的主要渠道。区域贸易协定的出口稳定效应对于“WTO+”协定条款、非发达经济体及技术密集型产品更为明显。进一步分析发现,区域贸易协定签署缓解了新冠疫情冲击对出口稳定的负向影响。研究结论对中国更好发挥区域贸易协定功能、巩固外贸基本盘具有启示意义。Facing the complex and severe international environment,it is of great significance to realize the export stability to the maximum extent for the high-quality development of China's foreign trade.Based on the data of China's export products from 2000 to 2019,this paper empirically studies the impact of regional trade agreements on export stability from the perspective of"scale".The results demonstrate that regional trade agreements contribute to the stability of China's exports to partner countries,primarily by mitigating uncertainties in trade policies,enhancing the business environment in partner countries,and reinforcing bilateral value chain linkages.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the export stabilization function of regional trade agreements is more obvious for"WTO+"agreement provisions,non-developed economies and technology-intensive products.Further analysis finds that the signing of regional trade agreements has mitigated the negative impact of the COVID-19 shock on export stability.The conclusions provide enlightening significance for China to better play regional trade agreements'functions and consolidate the basic of foreign trade.

关 键 词：出口稳定 区域贸易协定 区域贸易协定深度 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]