宏观数据与微观感受的“温差”:现象、成因与对策  

The"Temperature Difference"Between Macro Data and Micro Perception:Phenomena,Causes and Responses

作　　者：倪红福 冀承[3] Ni Hong-fu;Ji Cheng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [3]中国人民大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2024年第5期87-96,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下构建开放型经济体系研究”(22ZDA063);国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国贸易投资开放发展:基本规律、宏观效应与‘双循环’新发展格局构建”(72141309)。

摘　　要：本文主要从国民经济核算视角深入探究了宏观数据与微观感受之间“温差”的现象、成因及对策。宏微观不一致的典型现象包括宏观经济中高速增长与微观企业盈利水平普遍下降存在不同步性、居民可支配收入稳步增长与实际获得感较低具有显著差异、总体就业形势稳中向好与青年就业形势较为严峻产生明显背离。“温差”形成背后的深层次原因在于国民经济核算方法的加总偏差、对宏观数据的认识存在个体感受的“幻觉”和信息偏差、收入分配不均和居民资产负债表受损等多个方面。本文主要从加强宏微观核算数据的整合、改进数据采集与统计方式,提振微观主体预期和信心、优化收入分配结构四个方面提出了弥合“温差”的对策建议。In this paper,the phenomenon,causes and countermeasures of the"temperature difference"between macro data and micro feelings are explored in depth from the perspective of national economic accounting.Typical phenomena of inconsistency between macro and micro include the asynchrony between the medium and high speed growth of macro economy and the general decline in profitability of micro enterprises,the significant difference between the steady growth of disposable income of the residents and the low sense of actual gain,and the obvious deviation between the steady improvement of the overall employment situation and the severe employment situation of the young people.The deep-seated reasons behind the formation of the"temperature gap"lie in the summing-up bias of the national economic accounting method,the"illusion"of individual feelings and information bias in the understanding of macro-data,the unequal distribution of income,and the damage to residents'balance sheets.This paper puts forward countermeasures to bridge the"temperature gap"from four aspects:strengthening the integration of macro and micro accounting data,improving data collection and statistical methods,boosting the expectations and confidence of micro subjects,and optimizing the structure of income distribution.

关 键 词：宏观数据 微观感受 温差 国民经济核算 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济]