CBAM对中国高碳行业及汽车产品出口的影响分析  

Study on the Potential Impact of CBAM on China's Export of Highcarbon Industry and Automobile Products

作　　者：李欣瑶 孟庆瑶 朱毅[1] Li Xinyao;Meng Qingyao;Zhu Yi(China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300300)

机构地区：[1]中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司,天津300300

出　　处：《中国汽车》2024年第3期3-10,共8页China Auto

基　　金：国家重点研发计划,RCEP电动汽车领域标准国际化研究(编号2022YFF0609602-2)。

摘　　要：在欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)的国际背景下,本文采用一般均衡模型GTAP-E分析了CBAM对中国高碳行业及汽车产品出口的潜在影响。结果表明,CBAM的实施对我国GDP、社会福利的负面影响较为明显,对我国非金属制造业、化工制品、金属冶炼工业、金属制造业等高碳行业总产出和出口的冲击较大。从长期看,随着中国新能源汽车技术水平及品牌力提升,欧盟可能通过精准调整CBAM征收范围来保护欧洲汽车产业。在全面分析CBAM的基础上,本文提出了积极参与全球碳市场规则制定、完善汽车行业碳管理体系建设、加大对汽车企业节能减排支持力度等建议,旨在为政策制定实施和企业进行战略布局提供参考。Under the international background of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),this paper analyzed the potential impact of CBAM on China's export of high-carbon industry and automobile products based on the GTAP-E Model.The results indicated that the implementation of CBAM had a significant negative impact on China's GDP and social welfare,and also harmed the total output and export of China's high-carbon industry including the non-metallic manufacturing industry,chemical products,metal smelting industry,and metal manufacturing industry.In the long run,with the improvement of China's new energy vehicle technology level and brand power,the EU might accurately adjust the scope of CBAM to protect the European automobile industry.Based on the comprehensive analysis of CBAM,this paper puts forward suggestions including actively participating in the formulation of global carbon market rules,improving the construction of carbon management systems in the automobile industry,and increasing support for energy conservation and emission reduction of automobile enterprises,aiming to provide references for policy formulation,implementation,and strategic layout of enterprises.

关 键 词：碳边境调节机制 GTAP-E模型 高碳行业 汽车行业 应对措施 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]