2015-2020年北京市通州区重点慢性病早死概率预期目标分析  

Analysis of the expected target of premature mortality rates caused by main non-communicable diseases in Tongzhou District of Beijing from 2015 to 2020

作　　者：邹赤群[1] 陈志华 刘永昌[1] 杜倩 王祺 杨磊 ZOU Chiqun;CHEN Zhihua;LIU Yongchang;DU Qian;WANG Qi;YANG Lei(Tongzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 101100,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]北京市通州区疾病预防控制中心,北京101100 [2]河北医科大学公共卫生学院河北省环境与人群健康重点实验室

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2024年第3期313-317,共5页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(226Z7705G)。

摘　　要：目的 分析2015-2020年北京市通州区户籍人口四类慢性病早死概率变化趋势,为慢性病防治提供科学依据。方法 利用全国死因登记报告信息系统中北京市通州区的死亡登记资料,计算四类慢性病早死概率及年度变化百分比,分析其变化趋势。结果 2015-2020年北京市通州区户籍人口慢性病死亡构成比从86.05%下降至84.89%,差异有统计学意义(t=-2.548,P=0.063),标化死亡率从423.36/10万下降至381.05/10万(t=-4.006,P=0.016);心脑血管疾病和恶性肿瘤早死概率呈下降趋势,差异有统计学意义(t=-7.099、-4.810, P=0.002、 0.009),慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病早死概率有所下降,但差异无统计学意义(t=-2.576、-2.070,P=0.062、0.107)。历年男性慢性病标化死亡率显著高于女性,同时四类慢性病早死概率均高于女性。2020年与2015年相比,男性四类慢性病合计、心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病早死概率的年均下降速度分别为4.31%、 3.64%、4.95%、11.79%和3.80%;女性四类慢性病合计、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病、糖尿病和恶性肿瘤早死概率的年均下降速度分别为7.54%、11.98%、4.74%、0.54%和10.21%。男性糖尿病早死概率虽然呈下降趋势,年均下降速度为3.80%,但差异无统计学意义(t=-0.943,P=0.399);女性慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率则无明显下降趋势。结论 北京市通州区四类慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势,根据四类慢性病早死概率变化趋势推算,2030年四类慢性病预期早死概率能够达到“健康中国2030”规划纲要求下降30%的目标,仍需加强女性重点人群和重点疾病的防治。Objective To analyze the trend of premature mortality rates for main chronic non-communicable diseases(NCDs)in registered residents in Tongzhou District,Beijing,from 2015 to 2020,and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of chronic non-communicable diseases.Methods The death registration data of Tongzhou District from 2015 to 2020 in the National Death Registration and Reporting System was used to calculate premature mortality rates and annual change in the percentage of four main NCDs and to analyze the changing trend.Results From 2015 to 2020,the mortality rate from chronic diseases among registered residents in Tongzhou District,Beijing decreased from 86.05%to 84.89%(t=-2.548,P=0.063),and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 423.36/100000 to 381.05/100000(t=-4.006,P=0.016);premature mortality rates in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and malignant tumors decreased(t=-7.099,-4.810,P=0.002,0.009),while premature mortality rates in chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes decreased,but there was no statistical significance(t=-2.576,2.070,P=0.062,0.107).The standardized mortality rate of chronic diseases among males was significantly higher than that among females,and premature mortality rates of the four types of chronic diseases were higher among males than among females.Compared with 2015,the average annual decline rates of premature mortality rates from the four types of chronic diseases(cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,malignant tumors,chronic respiratory diseases,and diabetes mellitus)among males in 2020 were 4.31%,3.64%,4.95%,11.79%,and 3.80%,respectively,and those among females were 7.54%,11.98%,4.74%,0.54%,and 10.21%,respectively.Although the premature mortality rate from diabetes mellitus among males showed a decreasing trend with an average annual decline rate of 3.80%,there was no statistical significance(t=-0.943,P=0.399).The premature mortality rate from chronic respiratory diseases among females did not show a clear decreasing trend.Conclusio

关 键 词：慢性病 早死概率 变化趋势 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]