2024年总统大选后的俄罗斯与中俄关系  

Russia and China-Russia Relations after the 2024 Presidential Election

作　　者：毕洪业 杨波[3,4] 叶甫盖尼·萨夫科维奇 宋羽竹(翻译) 谢尔盖·比留科夫 石靖(翻译) 亚历山大·巴尔苏科夫 郑润宇 Bi Hongye;Yang Bo;Evgeny Savkovich;Sergey Biryukov;Alexander Barsukov;Zheng Runyu

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学中亚研究中心 [2]华东师范大学上海全球治理与区域国别研究院 [3]上海外国语大学俄罗斯东欧中亚学院 [4]上海外国语大学俄罗斯研究中心 [5]托木斯克国立大学历史与政治学院东方学系 [6]华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心 [7]俄罗斯联邦总统直属俄罗斯国民经济与国家行政学院西伯利亚管理学院 [8]华大学国际与地区研究院 [9]新西伯利亚国立大学政治学系

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2024年第2期19-46,共28页Russian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“俄乌冲突后俄罗斯构建‘后西方世界’及其对中俄关系的影响研究”(项目批准号:22JJD810007)的阶段性成果;教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“俄乌冲突与普京的‘后2024’研究”(项目批准号:22JJD810010)的阶段性成果;上海外国语大学校级重大课题“‘一带一路’视域下大国在中亚的软实力比较研究”(项目批准号:2023114004)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2024年是中俄建交75周年。在2024年3月普京当选连任俄罗斯总统后,中国国家主席习近平向普京致电祝贺。俄罗斯将延续普京的执政理念与实践,应对百年变局之下的全球和地区挑战。俄罗斯国内社会和经济等方面体现出一定韧性,对外将长期面对俄乌冲突持续、后苏联空间国家离心、外交突围困难等带来的严峻国际形势。在这样的背景下,俄罗斯陆续举办了涉及多领域的具有理念设计、平台构建意义的活动,并将主办金砖国家正式扩员后的首次峰会。作为俄罗斯外交体系中的重要部分,中俄关系在国际关系趋于紧张的背景下,显示出强大的内生动力和独立价值,双边贸易不断增长,民间交流规模继续扩大。在新的形势下,中俄两国仍然面临制度和结构性挑战、全球化扩散带来的挑战、文化文明挑战和新型国际关系建设的挑战。这需要中俄两国继续优化对外政策协调策略;在务实领域合作的基础上应对多极化挑战、推动一体化进程,推进“一带一路”与“大欧亚伙伴关系”的对接;在理解国家发展特殊性、现代化道路多样性的基础上理解国家的文明特性,以构建人类命运共同体的理念推动人类社会进步动力,积极应对文化文明挑战;推动上合组织、集安条约组织等多边平台积极发挥作用,应对恐怖主义等地区问题,维护地区的安全稳定,包括各国的本土安全和海外利益;在应对地区、全球危机的具体行动中探索新型国际合作模式。The year 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia.After Vladimir Putin was re-elected as the President of Russia in March 2024,Chinese President Xi Jinping called to congratulate him.Russia will continue Putin's governance philosophy and practice to address global and regional challenges within the context of the once-in-a-century changes.Domestically,Russia has shown certain resilience in social and economic aspects and will face long-term severe international situations due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict,centrifugal tendencies in post-Soviet states,and difficulties in diplomatic breakthroughs.Against this backdrop,Russia has hosted multiple events with conceptual designs and platform-building significance and will host the first summit of the BRICS countries after its formal expansion.As an important part of the Russian foreign policy system,China-Russia relations,amid a tense international context,have shown strong internal dynamics and independent value,with bilateral trade continuing to grow and civil exchanges expanding.In the new circumstances,China and Russia still face challenges institutionally and structurally,and challenges brought by the spread of globalization and of buildingnew international relations,in addition to cultural and civilizational challenges.This requires China and Russia to continue optimizing their foreign policy coordination strategies;to address multipolar challenges and promote integration based on pragmatic cooperation;to align the“Belt and Road”Initiative with the“Greater Eurasian Partnership”;to understand civilizational uniqueness based on recognizing national developmental specaility and the diversity of modernization paths while promoting the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind to drive social progress and actively respond to cultural and civilizational challenges;to enhance the roles of multilateral platforms such as the SCO and the CSTO to address regional issues like terrorism

关 键 词：中俄关系 新型国际关系 俄罗斯总统大选 乌克兰危机 国际反恐合作 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学]