俄乌冲突以来日本对外战略调整态势  

Adjustments in Japan's Foreign Strategy since the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：阎德学[1] 邱宇鹏 Yan Dexue;Qiu Yupeng

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心、周边合作与发展协同创新中心 [2]华东师范大学政治与国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2024年第2期96-117,共22页Russian Studies

摘　　要：自俄乌冲突爆发以来,日本的对外战略也出现了若干新变化。在外交政策方面,日本与西方国家保持“同一步调”,对俄罗斯持强硬立场,进行多次制裁。同时,日本又积极发展与乌克兰的伙伴关系,从财政、人道主义、难民、战后复兴、军用装备等多方面对乌克兰进行援助,并借机展开穿梭外交,提高自身的国际影响力。在安全政策方面,日本试图借俄乌冲突推进强军扩武计划,持续挑战专守防卫底线,意图动摇一直以来坚持的“无核三原则”。另一方面,日本又渲染东亚紧张局势,宣扬“中国威胁论”,不断加强与西方的安保合作,拓展影响范围,扩大安全空间,试图以此赋予遏制中国的“正当性”。然而,日本对俄制裁必定对双方都产生不利影响,日俄两国在俄乌冲突问题上的博弈仍将持续,日本新的安全政策也将加剧地区安全冲突风险,同时在国内将受到财政预算的约束和反战声音的限制。Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Japan's foreign strategy has seen several new changes.In terms of foreign policy,Japan has aligned with Western countries in maintaining a tough stance against Russia,implementing multiple sanctions.At the same time,Japan has actively developed its partnership with Ukraine,providing assistance in various areas including finance,humanitarian aid,refugee support,post-war reconstruction,and military equipment.Japan has also engaged in shuttle diplomacy to increase its international influence.In terms of security policy,Japan has attempted to use the Russia-Ukraine conflict to advance its military expansion plans,continuously challenging the baseline of its exclusively defensive posture and intending to undermine the long-held“Three Non-Nuclear Principles”.On the other hand,Japan has exaggerated tensions in East Asia,promoting the“China threat”theory,continuously strengthening security cooperation with the West,expanding its influence,and enlarging its security space,attempting to justify the containment of China.However,Japan's sanctions against Russia will inevitably have adverse effects on both parties,and the strategic games between Japan and Russia on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue.Japan's new security policy will also increase the risk of regional security conflicts,but it will be constrained by domestic budgetary limits and anti-war sentiments.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 日本对外战略 日俄关系 日乌关系 

分 类 号：D831.3[政治法律—政治学]