2013-2021年气象因素及其交互作用对内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市鼠密度的影响  

Individual and interactive effects of meteorological factors on rodent density in Ordos,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China,2013-2021

作　　者：尚猛 王璐 姜宛均 王晓旭 冀好强 梁莹[2] 刘起勇 SHANG Meng;WANG Lu;JIANG Wan-jun;WANG Xiao-xu;JI Hao-qiang;LIANG Ying;LIU Qi-yong(Department of Vector Control,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan Shandong 250012,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Department of Vector Biology and Control,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,WHO Collaberating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院媒介生物控制学系,山东济南250012 [2]传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室,世界卫生组织媒介生物监测与管理合作中心,北京102206

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2024年第2期205-211,共7页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32090023)。

摘　　要：目的了解气象因素单独及其交互作用对内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市鼠密度的影响。方法收集2013-2021年鄂尔多斯市鼠密度资料,采用广义相加模型分析气象因素单独作用及交互作用对鼠密度的影响。结果鄂尔多斯市鼠密度总体呈逐年下降趋势。鼠密度与滞后2月的月平均气温、月平均气压呈非线性关系,与当月的平均日照时数呈线性关系。子午沙鼠密度与月平均气温呈非线性关系,随着温度升高呈波动下降趋势,在约12℃时鼠密度出现1个小高峰,而在18℃左右时达到最低谷,随后迅速上升;鼠密度随月平均气压的升高而呈先升高后降低的趋势,约864 hPa达到峰值;月平均日照时数对子午沙鼠密度呈现正向的线性关系。滞后2月的月平均气温与同期月累计降水量和当月的平均日照时数均有一定的交互作用,滞后2月的适宜温度(约12℃)下强降水和当月短平均月日照时数有利于子午沙鼠密度升高。结论月平均日照时数、月平均气温及月平均气压对子午沙鼠密度呈线性及非线性影响,各气象因素间有一定的交互作用。Objective To investigate the individual and interactive effects of meteorological factors on rodent density in Ordos,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China.Methods The data on rodent density in Ordos from 2013 to 2021 were collected.The individual and interactive effects of meteorological factors on rodent density were analyzed using a generalized additive model.Results From 2013 to 2021,rodent density in Ordos showed an overall decreasing trend over the years.Rodent density showed nonlinear relationships with monthly average temperature and average air pressure at lag 2 months,and had a linear relationship with the average sunshine duration of the same month.The population density of Meriones meridianus exhibited a nonlinear relationship with monthly average temperature,which decreased with rising temperatures in a fluctuating pattern,with a minor peak around 12℃,reaching the lowest around 18℃,then followed by a rapid increase.As the average air pressure increased,the density of M.meridianus first increased and then declined,reaching its peak at approximately 864 hPa.There was a positive linear relationship between the density of M.meridianus and monthly average sunshine duration.Monthly average temperature at lag 2 months interacted with monthly cumulative precipitation in the same period and average sunshine duration in the current month.At an appropriate temperature(approximately 12℃)at lag 2 months,an intense precipitation and a shorter monthlyaverage sunshine duration in the current month favored an increase in the density of M.meridianus.Conclusion Monthly average sunshine duration,monthly average temperature,and monthly average air pressure have linear and nonlinear effects on M.meridianus density,and there is interaction between the meteorological factors.

关 键 词：鼠密度 子午沙鼠 气象因素 交互作用 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学] S443[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]