自愿减排机制下海洋碳汇交易的双重效益与影响因素  被引量:4

Dual benefits and influencing factors of ocean carbon sink trading under the voluntary emission reduction mechanism

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作  者:魏震昊 孙国茂 姚中杰 WEI Zhenhao;SUN Guomao;YAO Zhongjie(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao Shandong 266100,China;School of Finance,Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai Shandong 264005,China;Shandong Peninsula Economic Research Base,Yantai Shandong 264005,China)

机构地区:[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100 [2]山东工商学院金融学院,山东烟台264005 [3]山东省半岛经济研究基地,山东烟台264005

出  处:《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第4期48-59,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基  金:山东省社会科学规划研究项目“山东企业上市制约因素及应对措施研究”(批准号:21BZBJ06)。

摘  要:中国提出由能耗双控(控总量、控强度)转向碳排放双控,彰显了实现“双碳”目标的坚定决心与大国担当。身为第一大碳排放国,中国不仅需要以控碳为目标进行强制减排,更需要鼓励广泛“增汇”以实现社会化负排放。作为强制减排市场的有益补充,自愿减排市场兼顾全民参与和市场运作,两者互补协同、双轮驱动,是未来绿色低碳高质量发展的必经之路。该研究聚焦海洋碳汇(蓝碳)交易,构建了包含海洋碳汇的DSGE模型,借助脉冲响应,判断基于自愿减排机制的海洋碳汇交易是否兼顾“经济与环境”双重效益;通过敏感性分析,考察双重效益的波动情况;结合福利分析,探索双重效益与社会福利的提升策略。结果表明:①基于自愿减排机制的海洋碳汇交易能够实现双重效益,其中环境效益更显著。②做大做强海洋经济和适度加大政府补贴后,双重效益波动收敛,有助于海洋碳汇市场的平稳运行,海洋碳汇效率对环境效益的提升作用明显,而碳汇价格对双重效益的影响微弱。③实施海洋碳汇交易后社会福利改善明显,并且海洋产值占比的福利提升效果最显著,政府激励性补贴对福利提升的效果次之,交易价格与碳汇效率对福利的影响较弱。建议进一步强化“海洋强国”“海洋命运共同体”战略实施,加快海洋高质量发展;加强海洋碳汇方法学研究和技术创新,持续提升碳汇效率;政府适度提高激励性补贴,通过完善区域性自愿减排市场体系建设,加速推动海洋碳汇市场的落地实施。China has proposed a shift from the dual control of energy consumption(control of its total amount and intensity)to the dual control of carbon emissions,demonstrating its firm determination and great responsibility to achieve the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.As the largest carbon-emitting country,China needs to carry out mandatory emission reductions to con⁃trol carbon emissions and encourage extensive carbon sequestration to achieve socialized negative emissions.As a valuable supplement to the mandatory emission reduction market,the voluntary emission reduction market takes into consideration national participation,cit⁃izens'initiative,and market operation.The synergy of these two markets is indispensable for green,low-carbon,and high-quality devel⁃opment in the future.This study focused on the ocean carbon sink(‘blue carbon’)trading and constructed a DSGE model.Using pulse response,this study determined whether ocean carbon sink trading based on the voluntary emission reduction mechanism could achieve the dual benefits of‘economy development and environmental improvement.’By conducting a sensitivity analysis,the study examined the fluctuation of the dual benefits,and combining with a welfare analysis,it also explored strategies for enhancing the dual benefits and social welfare.The results showed that:①Ocean carbon sink trading based on the voluntary emission reduction mechanism could achieve the dual benefits,among which the environmental improvement benefit was more significant.②After expanding and strength⁃ening the marine economy and moderately increasing government subsidies,the fluctuation of the dual benefits converged,which helped the smooth operation of the ocean carbon sink market.The efficiency of ocean carbon sinks had a significant impact on the envi⁃ronmental improvement benefit,while the impact of carbon sink prices on the dual benefits was weak.③After the implementation of ocean carbon sink trading,social welfare significantly improved,and

关 键 词:海洋碳汇 碳交易 自愿减排 DSGE DICE 

分 类 号:F205[经济管理—国民经济]

 

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