美国网络联盟体系的系统效应分析  

The System Effects of the U.S.Cyber Alliance System

作　　者：赵子鹏 ZHAO Zipeng

机构地区：[1]国防大学国家安全学院

出　　处：《国家安全论坛》2024年第2期40-49,87,共11页National Security Forum

摘　　要：维护网络安全既是美国组建网络联盟的重要旗号,更是诸多国家加入这一联盟的首要诉求。但是,美国对网络议题的泛安全化策略,导致其主导下的网络联盟无论是成员组成还是层级结构,均进入持续扩张状态。目前,美国网络联盟已经从以美国为单一核心、重点聚焦网络空间军事议题的简单结构,扩张为一种复杂结构联盟体系,即联盟内不同成员国围绕不同议题动态组合小圈子,同时衍生出多个在美国之下、与美国有所争权的“二级核心”。复杂性科学指出,任何系统都面临“结果不随意图而来”的系统效应。在美国网络联盟体系中,这类系统效应表现为联盟体系具有将局部冲突扩大化的倾向、更多国家入盟后的集体行动能力不增反降、网络安全的重大威胁有时源自联盟内部、系统外部因素的快速进化削弱联盟内部控制力等,从而导致其结果更具不确定性。Maintaining cyber security is not only an important banner waved by the U.S.in its efforts to build cyber alliances,but also the primary aim of countries joining the U.S.-led alliances.However,American pan-securitization of cyber issues has led to the continuous expansion of its cyber alliance,both in terms of its members and hierarchical structure.The U.S.-led cyber alliance has evolved from a simple structure with U.S.at the core focusing on military issues in cyberspace to an expanded system with complex structure,in which various countries dynamically form small circles around different issues and several countries emerge as the“secondary cores”that compete for power against the U.S.According to the complexity science,unexpected effects will come from the interaction among various system components.As of the U.S.cyber alliances,such system effects include the tendency to escalate local conflicts,the decline of the capabilities for collective action,major threats sometimes originating from within the alliances,and the weakening of the internal control of the alliances by the rapid evolution of external factors.

关 键 词：网络安全 网络联盟 泛安全化 系统效应 

分 类 号：E919[军事] TP393.08[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] F471.26[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]