深度区域贸易协定的第三方效应与企业出口存续:信息成本的视角  

Third-country Effects of Regional Deep Trade Agreements and Enterprise Export Survival:A Perspective of Information Costs

作　　者：韩剑 刘逸群[2] 郑航 HAN Jian;LIU Yiqun;ZHENG Hang(Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center,Nanjing University;Business School,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,210093 [2]南京大学商学院,210093

出　　处：《经济研究》2024年第3期166-184,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(23JJD790007)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于企业维度数据研究区域贸易协定(RTA)对非成员国企业出口存续的第三方效应,并从信息成本视角揭示了第三方效应的来源。与传统的贸易转移观点不同,本文使用2000—2016年中国企业海关数据库以及深度贸易协定数据库研究发现,深度RTA对第三国企业具有积极的溢出效应:新老出口目的国之间签署RTA以及RTA深度的提高均有助于提升中国企业的出口存续概率,这一结论在多个维度的稳健性检验下保持一致。基于条款分类的初步研究表明,WTO-Plus条款、WTO-X条款以及非歧视条款深度的提高均产生了显著的第三方效应,特惠条款深度的影响则相反。机制分析发现,信息成本下降是第三方效应的主要来源,本文从不完全合约以及标准协同等两个视角为这一结论提供了佐证。最后,本文进一步证明,中国与缔约国之间的RTA深化具有类似的第三方效应,即当企业出口到与中国的缔约国存在RTA以及拥有共同语言的国家时,中国与缔约国之间的RTA深化有助于提高其出口存续概率。本文研究结论为中国企业出口关系的多元稳定提供了微观经验证据和政策参考。Exportation has been a significant driving force behind China's rapid economic growth.However,in recent years,China's exports have faced multiple constraints on both economic and non-economic fronts due to the uncertain trade environment,which has led to increased downward pressure on exports.Therefore,the urgent challenges in current foreign trade efforts are enhancing trade resilience and achieving progress while maintaining export stability.Furthermore,China's exports should also establish diverse cooperative partnerships and economic relations while maintaining stability.However,according to existing literature,efforts to diversify exports,such as the export trials,may result in less stable export relationships,making it difficult to achieve both diversity and stability in exports.Given the complex and severe external circumstances and the urgent need to maintain diverse and stable economic and trade relationships,it is im-portant to study how to enhance stability while developing diverse economic and trade relationships.This holds important theoretical and practical significance for enhancing China's trade resilience and promoting the sustainable development of exports over the long term.This paper estimates the impact of the regional trade agreement(RTA)between new and old destination countries on the export survival probability of China's enterprises and its mechanism.The exogenous indicators of the third-country effects are constructed by combining the China Customs Enterprise Database and the World Bank Deep Trade Agreement Database.The results show that the export survival probability of China's enterprises is significantly improved by concluding RTA between new and old destination countries and increasing the depth of RTA.It is found that the spillover effects of WTO-Plus provisions,WTO-X provisions,and non-discrimination provisions are significant and positive,while the preferential provisions have negative effects.The mechanism tests suggest that concluding RTA between new and old destination countri

关 键 词：区域贸易协定 第三方效应 信息成本 出口存续 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.62[经济管理—产业经济]