我国FISIM使用分摊方法优化及其产生的影响  

The Optimization of Allocation Measures of FISIM in China and Its Impact

作　　者：李云发[1] 贾小爱[1] Li Yunfa;Jia Xiaoai

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院统计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第4期27-39,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“国民经济核算分类体系现代化的理论、方法与中国实践研究”(22ATJ001)。

摘　　要：间接测算的金融中介服务(FISIM)使用分摊的目的是客观反映非金融机构部门对金融机构部门的依赖关系,以便更好地监测宏观经济。然而,目前我国的FISIM使用分摊方法无法完全准确、真实地反映非金融机构部门对金融中介服务的实际使用状况。本文系统梳理FISIM使用分摊理论的发展历程,深入剖析我国FISIM使用分摊存在的问题,采用参考利率法对我国FISIM使用分摊进行优化,对比分析参考利率法与指标法在机构部门间分摊FISIM的差异,进一步考察采用参考利率法分摊FISIM对国内生产总值和国民总收入的影响。研究发现,我国目前采用指标法分摊FISIM,不但会改变各非金融机构部门的中间消耗或最终消费,还会高估国内生产总值和国民总收入。与指标法相比,参考利率法是一种更精确、更接近实际的FISIM分摊方法,在基础数据允许的条件下,应尽量选择参考利率法分摊FISIM。Allocation measures of FISIM can objectively reflect the dependence of non-financial institutional sector on financial institutional sector to better monitor the macroeconomy.Currently,however,China's approach cannot truly reflect the actual use of financial intermediary services by non-financial institutional sector.This paper systematically combs the development history of allocation measures of FISIM,analyzes the problems in allocation measures of FISIM in China,adopts the reference interest rate approach to optimize the allocation measures of FISIM in China,compares the difference between the reference interest rate approach and the indicator approach,and investigates the impact of adopting the reference interest rate approach on GDP and gross national income.The research shows that the indicator approach which is currently used in China will not only change the intermediate consumption or final consumption of non-financial institutional sector,but also overestimate the GDP and the gross national income.The reference interest rate approach is more accurate and actual than the indicator approach.If the basic data could be obtained,the reference interest rate approach should be selected as far as possible.

关 键 词：FISIM 使用分摊 机构部门 参考利率法 指标法 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]