欧盟对中国反倾销的贸易限制效应研究——基于2010—2022年月度贸易数据  

The Effect of EU Anti-dumping Trade Restrictions on China:Based on Monthly Trade Data from 2010 to 2022

作　　者：刘似臣[1] 么晓彤 吕佳蓉 Liu Sichen;Yao Xiaotong;Lv Jiarong

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院、中东欧研究中心 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第4期85-97,共13页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文将欧洲联盟2010—2022年间对我国发起的反倾销案件进行完整梳理,首先选取我国遭受欧盟反倾销的典型涉案产品,详细阐述欧洲联盟进口量和进口额在反倾销前后的变动趋势。其次,使用2010—2022年间欧洲联盟与我国的HS6位码月度贸易数据构建动态面板模型,采用差分广义矩估计,确定以季度为研究周期,更为合理地动态考察欧洲联盟对我国反倾销的贸易限制效应,并区分反倾销节点异质性和产品异质性。最后,采用反事实估计法量化欧洲联盟对我国反倾销典型涉案产品的贸易限制比例。研究结果表明,欧洲联盟对我国反倾销典型涉案产品存在贸易限制效应,立案调查的贸易限制效应通常不存在滞后,而肯定性终裁的贸易限制效应往往存在滞后。本文对我国出口企业如何预警欧洲联盟发起的反倾销具有实际意义,也有助于重点出口行业合理调整生产,避免欧洲联盟对我国反倾销带来的损失。若贸易数据可以细分反倾销涉案产品的HS8位码,则能进一步将产品创新可能带来的影响纳入考察。This paper comprehensively sorts out the EU anti-dumping cases against China from 2010 to 2022.Firstly,the typical products involved in the EU anti-dumping are selected,and the change trend of the EU's import amount and import value before and after the anti-dumping is elaborated.Secondly,using the HS6 code monthly trade data between the EU and China from 2010 to 2022 and the dynamic panel differential GMM method,the"quarter"is determined as the study period,more reasonably and dynamically investigating the effect of anti-dumping trade restrictions,and also distinguishing the heterogeneity of products and the heterogeneity of anti-dumping nodes.Finally,the counterfactual estimation method is used to quantify the trade restriction ratio on typical anti-dumping products.The results show that the EU anti-dumping has trade restriction effect on the typical anti-dumping products of China.There is usually no lag in the trade restriction effect of the case investigation,but there is usually a lag in the trade restriction effect of the positive final award.This is of practical significance for Chinese export enterprises to perceive the anti-dumping initiated by the EU,and also helps key export industries to reasonably adjust production and avoid losses caused by anti-dumping.If the trade data can be subdivided into the HS8 code of the anti-dumping involved products,the possible impact of product innovation can be further included in the investigation.

关 键 词：反倾销 贸易限制效应 动态面板模型 

分 类 号：F752.02[经济管理—国际贸易]