2010―2019年甘肃省学生人群发热伴出疹性法定报告传染病发病趋势  

Temporal trend of notifiable infectious disease with rash and fever syndrome in Gansu students,2010-2019

作　　者：苟发香[1] 杨筱婷[1] 张晓曙[1] 徐蝶 郑芸鹤[1] 成瑶[1] 王龙 刘新凤[1] GOU Faxiang;YANG Xiaoting;ZHANG Xiaoshu;XU Die;ZHENG Yunhe;CHENG Yao;WANG Long;LIU Xinfeng(Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第4期389-392,457,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：甘肃省卫生行业科研管理项目(GSWSKY2022-57)。

摘　　要：目的分析2010―2019年甘肃省6~22岁学生人群发热伴出疹性法定报告传染病发病率的长期趋势,为发热伴出疹症候群监测提供依据。方法采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2010―2019年甘肃省6~22岁学生人群发热伴出疹性法定报告传染病发病率的长期趋势,并利用年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)与平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)估计总体及不同疾病、传播途径与病原体的趋势。结果2010―2019年甘肃省6~22岁学生人群猩红热、布鲁氏菌病(布病)与HIV/AIDS报告发病率在研究期间APC(95%CI)分别以[14.76%(3.66%~27.05%),P=0.008]、[24.88%(7.86%~44.60%),P=0.003]与[12.08%(1.73%~30.11%),P=0.030]上升;人畜共患病和细菌性传染病的报告发病率AAPC分别以33.80%和15.09%攀升(均P<0.001)。结论甘肃省学生人群猩红热、布病及HIV/AIDS报告发病率在2010―2019年呈上升趋势,未来应加强对人畜共患病及细菌性传染病相关的发热伴出疹症候群监测。Objective To determine the temporal trend of notifiable infectious disease with rash and fever syndrome reported in Gansu students during 2010-2019,and to provide guidance for syndromic surveillance of rash and fever illness.Methods Joinpoint regression model was applied to determine the temporal trend of yearly morbidity of notifiable infectious disease with rash and fever among Gansu students aged 6-22 years during 2010-2019.And the overall,diseases-specific,route-of-transmission specific,and pathogen-type specific annual percent changes(APC)and average annual percent changes(AAPC)were estimated with respectively.Results Reported morbidities of scarlet fever,brucellosis,and HIV/AIDS in Gansu students aged 6-22 years were increased with APCs of[14.76%(3.66%-27.05%),P=0.008],[24.88%(7.86%-44.60%),P=0.003],and[12.08%(1.73%-30.11%),P=0.030]respectively during 2010-2019(P<0.050).And reported morbidities of zoonosis and bacterial infectious diseases were increased with AAPCs of 33.80%and 15.09%,respectively(P<0.001).Conclusions Scarlet fever,brucellosis,and HIV/AIDS are increasing in Gansu students during 2010-2019,and syndromic surveillance of rash and fever illness over zoonosis and bacterial infectious diseases should be strengthened further.

关 键 词：公共卫生监测 发热伴出疹 学生 Joinpoint回归模型 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]