机器换人的储蓄效应——技术变革中的收入冲击、消费变动与风险偏好演化  

The Saving Effect of Machines Replacing Workers:Income Shock,Consumption Changes and Evolution of Risk Preferences in Technological Revolution

作　　者：李超[1,2] 宁光杰[1] Li Chao;Ning Guangjie(Business School,Shandong University;Center for Quality of Life and Public Policy Research,Shandong University)

机构地区：[1]山东大学商学院 [2]山东大学生活质量与公共政策研究中心

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2024年第1期28-56,共29页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23CJL007)的资助。

摘　　要：机器换人与居民高储蓄率是近些年中国经济的重要现象,而关于二者的内在关联及影响机理尚待系统研究。本文基于技术变革视角,对中国持续居高的居民储蓄提出了新解释。研究表明:人工智能带来的机器换人显著增强了储蓄偏好,其他因素不变时,微观主体受机器换人的影响每提高一个标准差,储蓄平均增加21.45%。该结论在利用不同机器换人和储蓄指标、区域双重差分、工具变量、惩罚回归等方法进行稳健性与内生性检验时均成立。影响机制在于,机器换人虽降低了收入,但会通过减少双倍消费增加储蓄。深层次原因是,机器换人降低了居民的风险偏好,促使其减少享受型与发展型消费。研究还发现,人工智能是任务偏向型而非技能偏向型技术进步,提升劳动者教育水平不足以弱化其影响,但促进劳动者自由流动、加强劳动保护有助于降低其不利冲击。因此应充分重视人工智能的潜在冲击,积极出台与新技术相适应的配套措施,着力激发消费潜能、释放内循环的经济活力。Machines replacing workers and high household saving rates have become important phenomena in the Chinese economy during recent years,while the association between the two and the impact mechanism await systematic analysis.From the perspective of technological revolution,this paper proposes a new explanation for the persistently high household savings in China.Analytical results demonstrate that machines replacing workers brought about by artificial intelligence significantly enhances saving preferences.For each increase of one standard deviation of the machine replacement parameter,savings rise by an average of 21.45%.This conclusion is robust against different machine replacement and savings indicators,regional DID,instrumental variable models,placebo analysis,etc.The mechanism of the impact is that although the replacement by machines reduces income,it increases savings by reducing consumption twice as much as the decrease in income.The fundamental reason is that machine replacement reduces people's risk preferences and thus cuts their entertainment consumption and development consumption.This study also finds that artificial intelligence is task-biased rather than skill-biased technological progress,and consequently its impact cannot be weakened simply by improving workers'education levels.Promoting the free migration of workers and strengthening labor protection can mitigate the adverse impacts of artificial intelligence.This paper implies that great attention must be paid to the potential negative effects of artificial intelligence.Suitable policies compatible with the new technological progress should be introduced to promote consumption and enhance internal circulation of the economy.

关 键 词：机器换人 储蓄偏好 收入冲击 风险偏好 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] F126.2[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]