1990—2019年中国居民腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析  

Analysis on incidence trend and age-period-cohort model of inguinal hernia,femoral hernia and abdominal hernia in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：郭朝阳 李荣振 刘胜超 刘慧莹 郭莹莹 贾光耀 GUO Zhaoyang;LI Rongzhen;LIU Shengchao;LIU Huiying;GUO Yingying;JIA Guangyao(The Fifth Clinical Medical College(Zhengzhou People's Hospital),Henan University of Chinese Medicine,Zhengzhou,Henan 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南中医药大学第五临床医学院/郑州人民医院,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《现代疾病预防控制》2024年第4期297-302,共6页MODERN DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

摘　　要：目的分析1990—2019年中国居民腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝发病趋势,探讨年龄、时期、出生队列对其发病风险的影响。方法收集全球疾病负担研究中中国居民腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝发病数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析1990—2019年中国居民腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝发病率的变化趋势,采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析影响其发病风险的年龄效应、时期效应和出生队列效应。结果1990—2019年中国居民腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝发病率整体呈波动上升趋势,由1990年的95.92/10万上升至2019年的125.09/10万,平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)为0.91%(95%CI:0.83%~1.00%)。年龄-时期-队列模型分析显示,腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝的发病风险随着年龄的增加呈下降-上升-下降趋势,相对危险度(RR)由<5岁的5.32(95%CI:4.87~5.81)下降至20~<25岁的0.29(95%CI:0.25~0.34),然后上升至65~<70岁的2.75(95%CI:2.58~2.93),最后下降至≥95岁的0.53(95%CI:0.46~0.60);随时期的推移呈上升趋势,RR值从0.86(95%CI:0.82~0.90)上升到1.16(95%CI:1.11~1.21);随出生队列的推移总体呈下降趋势,RR值从1.27(95%CI:0.97~1.69)降到0.68(95%CI:0.60~0.77)。结论1990—2019年中国居民腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝发病率呈现上升趋势,发病存在年龄、时期和出生队列效应。有必要制定更有效的预防和控制措施,以期降低腹股沟疝、股疝和腹疝发病率。Objective To analyze the incidence trend of inguinal hernia(IH),femoral hernia(FH),and abdominal hernia(AH)in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 and explore the effects of age,period,and cohort on the risk of IH,FH and AH.Methods The incidence data of IH,FH and AH in Chinese residents were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trend of IH,FH and AH incidence from 1990 to 2019.An age-period-cohort model analysis was used to examine the effects of age,period,and cohort on the risk of them.Results The overall incidence of IH,FH and AH in Chinese residents exhibited an upward trend with fluctuations from 1990 to 2019,with an averaging annual percentage change(AAPC)of 0.91%(95%CI:0.83%-1.00%).The age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the risk of IH,FH and AH decreased,then increased,and finally declined with increasing age.The relative risk(RR)first decreased from 5.32(95%CI:4.87-5.81)in the age group less than 5 years to 0.29(95%CI:0.25-0.34)in the age group of 20-<25years old,then increased to 2.75(95%CI:2.58-2.93)in the age group of 65-<70 years old,and finally decreased to 0.53(95%CI:0.46-0.60)in the age group greater than or equal to 95 years.The period effect gradually increased with the passage of time,and the RR value increased from 0.86(95%CI:0.82-0.90)to 1.16(95%CI:1.11-1.21).The overall risk decreased with the progress of birth cohort,and the RR value decreased from 1.27(95%CI:0.97-1.69)to 0.68(95%CI:0.60-0.77).Conclusions The incidence of IH,FH and AH among Chinese residents showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019.Age,period,and cohort effects exists on the incidence of IH,FH and AH in China.More effective prevention and control measures are needed to reduce the incidence of IH,FH and AH.

关 键 词：腹股沟疝 股疝 腹疝 发病率 变化趋势 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R656.2[医药卫生—外科学]