2017一2022年厦门市思明区糖尿病负担及趋势预测  

Diabetes burden and trend prediction in Siming district of Xiamen city from 2017 to

作　　者：谢丽珊 吕晨芳 陈沁 林佩蕙 林艺兰[2] XIE Li-shan;LYU Chen-fang;CHEN Qin;LIN Pei-hui;LIN Yi-lan(The Center for Disease Control and Prevention Siming District,Xiamen,Fujian Province,361001)

机构地区：[1]福建省厦门市思明区疾病预防控制中心,福建厦门361001 [2]福建省厦门市疾病预防控制中心,福建厦门361000

出　　处：《疾病预防控制通报》2024年第2期55-59,共5页Bulletin of Disease Control & Prevention(China)

基　　金：福建省卫生健康科技计划项目资助(2022RKB016)。

摘　　要：目的 了解厦门市思明区糖尿病负担,预测糖尿病死亡变化趋势,为糖尿病防控提供参考依据。方法通过人口死亡信息登记系统收集2017一2022年思明区糖尿病死亡患者信息,计算死亡率、潜在减寿年数(PYLL)、潜在工作损失年数(WYPLL)、早死概率等指标,评价糖尿病负担;采用年度变化百分比(APC)分析率的变化趋势;利用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行预测。结果2017—2022年思明区户籍居民糖尿病死亡率17.79/10万,标化率13.25/10万,死亡率年均上升6.41%(t=4.817,P<0.05)。男性死亡率及标化死亡率均略高于女性;死亡率随年龄增长而升高(趋势χ^(2)=111183.977,P<0.001),死亡率40岁以上开始增加、70岁之后上升速度加快、85岁以上达到最高峰。糖尿病造成的平均减寿年数(AYLL)为10.35人年,减寿率0.41‰,平均潜在工作损失年数(AWYPLL)为9.64人年,潜在工作损失率0.35‰;标化潜在减寿年数(SPYLL)为1825.09人年,早死概率为0.34%,去病因后期望寿命增长0.48岁;糖尿病伴有酮症酸中毒患者的AYLL最高,糖尿病伴有肾脏并发症的AWYPLL最高。灰色模型的预测方程为(t)=228.564287e^(0.0668(t-1))-213.088323,平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)为2.93%,此预测模型精度等级为2级良好,2023—2025年思明区糖尿病死亡率预测值分别为22.05/10万、23.58/10万和25.20/10万。结论思明区糖尿病死亡率整体呈上升趋势,应加强糖尿病尤其是并发症的综合防控工作。Objective To investigate the burden of diabetes and predict the trend of diabetes mortality in Siming district of Xiamen city,so as to provide reference for diabetes prevention and control.Methods The death information of patients with diabetes in Siming district from 2017 to 2022 was collected from the death information registration system.The mortality rate,potential years of life lost(PYLL),potential years of work lost(WYPLL),premature death probability were calculated for evaluating the burden of diabetes.The annual percentage change(APC)was used to analyze the change trend of the rates.The grey model of GM(1,1)was used for prediction.Results The mortality rate of diabetes was 17.79/100000,with the standardized rate of 13.25/100000 in Siming district from2017 to 2022,and the mortality rate increased by 6.41%per year(t=4.817,P<0.05).The mortality and standardized mortality of the males were slightly higher than those of the females.The mortality increased with the age(trend χ^(2)=111183.977,P<0.001).The mortality increased from 40 years old and above,speed up after 70 years and reached the peak in 85 years old and above.The AYLL due to diabetes was 10.35 person-years,with the life lost rate of 0.41%o.The average years of potential work lost(AWYPLL)was 9.64 person-years,with the rate of potential work loss of 0.35%o.The standardized potential years of life lost(SPYLL)was 1825.09 person-years,with the premature death probability of 0.34%,and the life expectancy increased by 0.48 years after removal the causes.AYLL was the highest in the diabetes patients with ketoacidosis,and AWYPLL was the highest in the diabetes patients with renal complications.The prediction equation of GM(1,1)was(t)=228.564287e0068(r-1)-213.088323 and the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)was 2.93%.The accuracy level of this predictive model was considered good(grade 2).From 2023 to 2025,the predicted mortality rates of diabetes was 22.05/100000,23.58/100000 and 25.20/100000,respectively,in Siming district.Conclusions The overall mortali

关 键 词：糖尿病 死亡率 年度变化百分比 平均减寿年数 灰色模型 

分 类 号：R587.1[医药卫生—内分泌]