基于MCMC的电网安全稳定控制系统动态可靠性评估方法  

Dynamic reliability evaluation method of power grid security and stability control system based on Markov chain Monte Carlo

作　　者：阚骏 董希建 王敏[1] 夏海峰 KAN Jun;DONG Xijian;WANG Min;XIA Haifeng(School of Electrical and Power Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106,China;State Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Protection and Control,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学电气与动力工程学院,江苏南京211100 [2]南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏南京211106 [3]智能电网保护和运行控制国家重点实验室,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《电力工程技术》2024年第3期23-31,共9页Electric Power Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFB2400900)。

摘　　要：现有安全稳定控制系统(简称稳控系统)的可靠性评估方法本质上属于静态建模,由于未能体现系统内各装置老化和检修等动态过程,在一定程度上影响了评估结果的准确性。为此,文中提出一种基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)的稳控系统动态可靠性评估方法。首先针对失效过程,构建四状态非齐次马尔可夫模型来模拟装置老化过程,并给出各状态评判方法;其次针对修复过程,分析不同检修策略对装置状态转移的影响以体现状态检修的差异性;最后考虑稳控装置状态转移过程的时序或条件相关性,对稳控系统可靠性进行动态建模。以实际稳控系统为例,仿真对比不同检修策略下的可靠性,并对模型参数进行灵敏度分析。评估结果表明,该方法可以求解稳控系统的时变可用度,用于指导稳控装置现场合理检修。The current reliability evaluation method of the security and stability control system(SSCS) is primarily based on static modeling,which fails to capture the dynamic aging and maintenance processes of individual devices within the system,thereby impacting the accuracy of evaluation results to a certain extent.Therefore,a dynamic reliability evaluation method of the SSCS based on Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the four-state non-homogeneous Markov model is constructed to simulate the aging process of the device,and the evaluation methods of each state are given.Secondly,according to the repair process,the influence of different maintenance strategies on the state transition of the device is analyzed to reflect the difference of state maintenance.Finally,the reliability of the SSCS is modeled dynamically by considering the temporal or conditional correlation of the state transition process of the security and stability control device.Taking the actual SSCS as an example,the reliability under different maintenance strategies is compared by simulation,and the sensitivity of model parameters is analyzed.The evaluation results show that this method can solve the time-varying availability of the SSCS,and can be used to guide the reasonable maintenance of the security and stability control device on site.

关 键 词：安全稳定控制系统 时变失效率 动态可靠性 状态检修 马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC) 灵敏度 

分 类 号：TM77[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]